Bahrain: pre-qualifying
Two big pieces of
off-track news to get out of the way. First off, from 2019, UK live
coverage will be limited (until 2024) to Sky (pay TV). Lovely.
On a more positive
note, my book, The Adventures of Sir Edric, came out yesterday. And
you should buy it. Not only will this enable me to buy items such as
food, clothing and shelter, but it will also keep you thoroughly
entertained. Besides, if you’ve been putting £10 on each of my
tips since 2009, they’ve made you over £1,000. Just think of all
the profit you’ll lose if low sales make me too miserable to post
any more ;)
Leaving aside the
vileness of exclusive pay TV live coverage or the splendiferousness
of my book, we have a race which requires our attention.
Bahrain’s much faster
than Australia, and straight line speed is more important. This
should, relatively, advantage Williams and disadvantage the likes of
Red Bull, Renault and McLaren (and perhaps Toro Rosso, who have last
year’s Ferrari engine). Haas and Manor may benefit.
It’s some time ago,
when he was racy at Ferrari, but Massa’s had some good results in
Bahrain in the past. And, of course, there was a classic two years
ago when Hamilton and Rosberg had a race-long duel (not to mention
lots of overtaking throughout the field).
That said, I have vague
memories of that race also being an indicator the car was the
critical component. I do think McLaren will struggle (later, at
Monaco, they may be alright).
It was interesting to
see the comparable pace of the Mercedes and Ferrari in Australia, and
will also be intriguing to observe how they match up in Bahrain. I
expect Mercedes to retain a qualifying edge, but that may not
translate to a race pace advantage. There may be opportunity backing
Ferrari for two podium places.
A reminder that the
qualifying rubbish of last time has been dropped and we’ve returned
to the sanity of the old format. Or so we thought...
Sadly, after writing
the above line, it emerged F1 bosses didn’t even offer that as an
option for team principals when they meet on the 24th.
Instead, the choices were sticking with the elimination system, or
having that for Q1 and Q2, and an old style Q3. The sport’s trying
to kill itself. I’m tempted to boycott qualifying altogether (in
terms of viewing it) just to depress the viewing figures (ok, by one,
but others may well feel likewise).
It’s also worth, for
the race, considering the divergence in qualifying and race pace. The
Prancing Horse looked like a lame pony on Saturday, and a racy
thoroughbred on Sunday. Even if the Ferraris are well off the Silver
Arrows for qualifying, they could still enjoy a good race.
In P1 Rosberg was
fastest, a full half second ahead of Hamilton. Raikkonen, Ricciardo
and Kvyat were next, with Hulkenberg, Sainz, Verstappen, Grosjean and
Massa rounding out the top 10.
Second practice also had Rosberg
leading Hamilton, this time by two-tenths. Button was third, which
seems odd to be typing nowadays. Verstappen, Raikkonen and Vettel are
next, with Kvyat, Bottas, Ricciardo and Massa taking us to tenth
place.
After the second
practice it emerged that Ferrari (2016 engine, so not affecting Toro
Rosso) appears to have a problem and can’t fully deploy the turbo
on the straights. It doesn’t appear to be big enough to cripple
Ferrari or its customers but is a detriment and will give an edge to
Mercedes-powered cars (Renault and Honda are still behind).
In P3 Vettel and
Raikkonen were less than half a tenth different at the top,
four-tenths ahead of Rosberg. I smell something fishy. Hamilton was
less than a tenth behind his team mate. Bottas was half a second
behind the Briton, with Grosjean an impressive sixth (however, many,
including the low-ranked Toro Rossos and Force Indias, were on the
slower soft tyre [we’ve got medium, soft and supersoft this
weekend] and it looks very close in the midfield). Kvyat was seventh,
followed by Gutierrez, Massa and Ricciardo.
Now, the question is
whether we believe Ferrari are four-tenths faster than Mercedes. And
the answer (for me) is no. Even if the race pace gap has narrowed
substantially, and I think it has, the Mercedes had massive dominance
in Australia come qualifying and, given the Ferrari engine issue,
it’s hard to believe they’re four-tenths up. [That said, Mercedes
were inexplicably rubbish at Singapore last year, so this is not an
impossible scenario].
I think Rosberg’s
likeliest to get pole. His odds on Ladbrokes are 2.37. Interestingly,
the winning margin odds (which I don’t usually consider) are 3.75
for 0.15s or less. Given the Ferraris and Mercedes in P3 were covered
by this, that may actually be the better bet.
I checked my last two
Bahrain articles and Rosberg got 2014 pole, Hamilton 2015. Not sure
of the 2014 margin (a few years ago I would’ve checked the
excellent records on the official F1 site but they’ve done away
with those due to a redesign), but in 2015 it was about four-tenths
(over Vettel, Rosberg two-tenths further back from his countryman).
Tricky, but I’ve
decided to back Rosberg at 2.37. The other bet tempts me, but a
screwed up lap or someone putting in a stonker (or even traffic
getting in the way) could ruin it, especially as the last four
minutes is expected to be very quiet.
The pre-race piece may
go up either this evening or tomorrow morning.
Morris Dancer
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