China: post-race analysis 2016

A highly entertaining race which was terrible from a betting perspective.

The start was great, especially for Ricciardo who leapt into 1^st. Rosberg slid, but only to 2^nd, and Vettel found himself caught in a Raikkonen-Kvyat sandwich. He hit his team mate, which put Vettel back several places and lost Raikkonen a bunch more, not to mention his front wing.

As Raikkonen returned to the track, having narrowly evaded the gravel traps, Nasr had to take avoiding action which meant he hit Hamilton, breaking the Briton’s front wing (which was also trapped under his car for part of the trip back to the pits).

Mayhem, calamity, woe undsoweiter.

There was a slightly odd delay of a couple of laps before the safety car trundled out due to the extensive amount of carbon fibre strewn across the circuit. Can’t recall if this was before or after, but Ricciardo (either 1^st or 2^nd at the time) suffered a puncture which ended up with his tyre being torn off, shunting him well down the field.

Many cars came in for a pit stop at this time (lap 7, give or take), though Rosberg stayed out on his soft tyres. The Force Indias also stayed out as did Alonso (who started on the soft, unlike Button who started on the supersoft and dove into the pits). Hamilton made many stops as Mercedes decided to pit him again for the supersoft then return to the soft, eliminating the need to change (later in the race) onto another compound [as it happened, they did end up shifting to medium tyres late on].

There was much overtaking as Vettel, Ricciardo, Raikkonen and Hamilton fought through the field over the course of the rest of the race. The McLarens, sadly, slid inexorably backwards. I would’ve thought their pace, whilst not world-beating, would’ve been sufficient to get at least one car into the points (worth noting there were zero retirements, which is unusual).

Vettel caught Kvyat, then 2^nd, but was unable to pass on-track. They both stopped for a final time and the Ferrari was able to pounce, after which Vettel pulled a small but secure gap (though Rosberg was half a minute ahead of him, cruising about, dreaming of home and possibly completing a crossword puzzle).

Hamilton, meanwhile, was passing cars and caught up to Massa (circa 5^th). He couldn’t get past the wily Brazilian who was clearly a bit slower but driving well. In fact, Ricciardo managed to get past Hamilton and Massa, with relative ease. Being slowed by the Brazilian also enabled Raikkonen to catch up, and pass both Hamilton and Massa.

Rosberg cruised to victory, with Vettel a respectable 2^nd, and Kvyat picking up a great 3^rd (debate will rage about whether he was right or wrong to dive past Vettel and play a role in the subsequent collision). Ricciardo recovered very well from his puncture to secure a 4^th place hat trick, with Raikkonen doing likewise for 5^th and Massa driving defensively well to retain 6^th.

Hamilton was a lacklustre 7^th, potentially due to car damage. Or maybe he had an off day. Verstappen and Sainz were next and Bottas nabbed the final point.

Haas was weirdly off the pace, 14^th for Gutierrez (his first finish) and 19^th for Grosjean. Not sure why. Could open betting potential if the car is racy in some conditions and rubbish in others. McLaren should perhaps be disappointed with 12^th and 13^th, but they didn’t really seem to do anything wrong.

Both Force Indias failed to score, and the Renaults look rubbish. Wehrlein was 18^th, ahead of Grosjean, Nasr, Haryanto and Palmer.

In terms of judgement, I got Hamilton utterly wrong. It’s theoretically possible the hedge for the win may’ve been matched had he not been run into by Nasr (who was taking avoiding action from Raikkonen) but my own view is that’s unlikely. Not only did Hamilton fail to get a podium, he wasn’t even top 6, which is really surprising. Maybe the damage to his car when he had half a lap with the wing broken/under the floor was more extensive than it might have been.

I feel a little unluckier about the Ferrari/Alonso bets. The Ferraris collided on lap 1. Raikkonen was a few feet from gravel trap hell. If neither had been able to continue, this would’ve been one of my best race results (as their absence would also have propelled Alonso to 10^th). If one had failed to continue, I would’ve been neutral or made a small loss (a quarter of a stake or suchlike). But, both continued, and all bets failed (unlike the Ferraris which, annoyingly, had their first double finish of the season). Still, that’s the way things go. Sometimes luck is helpful. Sometimes it isn’t.

Anyway, here are the standings for the drivers:

Rosberg 75

Hamilton 39

Ricciardo 36

Vettel 33

Raikkonen 28

Massa 22

Kvyat 21

Grosjean 18

Is it Rosberg’s title to lose? Yes. On the nine previous occasions a driver has won the first three races, he’s always gone on to take the title. However, it’s worth remembering this season is the longest in F1 history (21 races), and Hamilton has 18 races to make up a 36 point deficit. If he finishes an average of 2 points ahead, that’ll do it. However, as Mercedes 1-2 finishes seem likelier, if he beats Rosberg in 12 of the remaining 18 races, that would probably be sufficient. However, Rosberg’s driving nicely. Hamilton needs a good start next time.

Ferrari think their turbo upgrade (due around Canada, I think) will give a substantial boost. If it does, Vettel and Raikkonen could yet be in contention (worth noting they both only have 2 finishes from 3 races, unlike those ahead of them).

Constructors’:

Mercedes 114

Ferrari 61

Red Bull 57

I do think this slightly underplays Ferrari’s strength as they’ve had a couple of failures to score. On pace, this is the clear pecking order, I think.

So, I’m a bit displeased about more bad luck and my own ill-judgement, but these things do happen. The next race is Russia in a fortnight. I think the performance may be comparable to Australia there, so Haas may be worth watching.

Morris Dancer