Bahrain: pre-race
In protest at the
qualifying shambles, I decided not to watch qualifying. I did follow
the BBC livefeed instead, however, and will watch the race tomorrow.
Worth noting Magnussen
will start from the pit lane tomorrow, because he missed a mandatory
weight check yesterday.
In Q1, Nasr was
eliminated first, then Haryanto (Manor driver). Palmer was next and
then Magnussen (so, pretty atrocious for Renault). Perez was out
next. Ericsson and Wehrlein were the last to be eliminated (great
performance from Wehrlein).
In Q2, Kvyat was
eliminated first. Then Button, Gutierrez and then Stoffel Vandoorne,
standing in for the injured Alonso (great début performance). Sainz,
Verstappen and Grosjean were eliminated next.
Q3 saw Hulkenberg
eliminated first. Then Massa was out, Bottas and Ricciardo. The pole
position went to Hamilton, less than a tenth ahead of Rosberg. Bit
irked I went for the wrong bet, but there we are. Vettel lines up
third and Raikkonen fourth.
After the qualifying,
Hamilton was investigated for reversing in the pit lane, but was
allowed to keep pole.
Several bets present
themselves (before checking the amrkets)
Ferrari top score
Grosjean points
Vandoorne points
Ferrari are 4.33 with
Ladbrokes to top score. Top scoring, if all four of the starting grid
finish, requires a team to have the winning car. First and fourth
outscore second and third. However, if one team has only one car
finishing, then second and third (or even third and fourth) is enough
to top score. It’s intriguing but the odds on Vettel or Raikkonen
winning (maybe each way) might be more tempting (6 and 17 with
Ladbrokes).
Grosjean is 1.9 for
points, and Vandoorne is 2.75. I think Vandoorne’s odds are tight.
He’s two places off points in his first F1 race, although he has (I
think) enjoyed success at Bahrain in other vehicles. Grosjean’s
odds may underestimate him. But they’re also not all that long.
After idly perusing the
market to see if any value leapt out at me, a few things were worth
considering:
Vettel, win 7.4 (hedged
3.4), Betfair
Massa, top 6, 2.37,
Ladbrokes
Several of those bets
revolve around Ferrari potentially being a match for Mercedes, and
trying to calculate the best value if that’s the case. There’s
also a small reliability question mark over the Prancing Horse,
whereas the Silver Arrows, by testing and the first race, appear to
be bulletproof.
In the end, after quite
a lot of time to trying to work that out, I went for two bets:
Vettel, win, 7.4
(hedged at 3.4), Betfair
Grosjean, points, 1.9,
Ladbrokes
Australia had a
cracking start and a topsy-turvy race, which was entertaining but
also made direct comparison between the top two teams tricky. The
reason I’m relatively confident about Ferrari’s prospects is that
Mercedes has almost always had a massive edge in qualifying. If
that’s gone, it’s possible that the Ferrari will actually be the
faster car.
For Grosjean, I think
his car is nicely placed. He has free choice of tyres, the highest
starting car to do so, a good engine, a good driver and his pace is
probably better than starting ninth suggests (had he done another lap
he may have beaten Hulkenberg).
The race starts at 4pm.
Morris Dancer
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