Canada: pre-race
Well,
I was surprised by the final grid lineup.
Gutierrez
was unable to participate in qualifying because his car wasn't in a
state to drive, following a P3 crash. Maldonado suffered yet again
from mechanical gremlins, which ended his efforts to escape Q1
prematurely.
Q3
also saw the departure of the pointless team and Marussia, although
the latter were pretty close to 16th.
Q2
saw the unsurprising exit of Sutil. The Sauber really is an absolute
dog this year, and their driver lineup is not strong enough to
compensate for the car's deficiency. Added to that are rumoured
financial difficulties, and it's sad to see the team in such a poor
state. Kvyat was surprisingly low down the order in 15th,
with Grosjean 14th,
suggesting Lotus' slight improvement in form has not been maintained.
Perez, Magnussen and Hulkenberg were 13th
to 11th.
Not great, but par for the course and Force India has managed some
decent results from similar starting positions. Slightly surprising
Magnussen was so low down as McLaren had seemed more competitive
earlier in qualifying.
In
Q3 Ricciardo was once again teaching Vettel a lesson in qualifying,
before the world champion rediscovered his form and shaved more than
four-tenths from his time to snatch an unlikely 3rd
from Williams. Through qualifying, Williams had seemed likeliest to
get 3rd
and Massa to lead Bottas, but in the end Bottas was 4th
and Massa 5th.
A shade disappointing, but it's also a measure of just how much
improved the team is that they got 4th
and 5th
and think that was an underachievement. Ricciardo was 6th,
and Alonso 7th,
less than Ferrari perhaps hoped for. Vergne got 8th,
miles ahead of his talented newcomer team mate. Button was 9th
and Raikkonen 10th.
It
was at the sharp end that the biggest surprise was sprung. On the
first run in Q3 Rosberg was a tiny margin ahead of Hamilton, to
everyone's surprise. Even more unexpected was that this was repeated
on the second run. Rosberg got pole and Hamilton had to make do with
2nd.
After
getting out of the car Rosberg was much more muted than his
celebrations after the Monaco pole, and he and Hamilton seem to have
at least some cordial civility between themselves now. In the press
conference, the first thing Hamilton did was congratulate his team
mate and, when asked if he thought the race would be as close,
confirmed it would be.
The
circuit in Canada is one of my favourites, a proper old school track
where overtaking is entirely possible and the weather can play havoc
(as we saw in 2011). There will be an almighty tussle between the two
Mercedes (again), and it's immensely close for the title of best of
the rest.
Incidentally,
a new 10 year deal for the Canadian Grand Prix has been struck, which
is great news.
The
race starts at 7pm. It's expected to be dry.
Tyre
wear can be high in Canada. That reminds me, along with the focus on
straight line speed, a little of Bahrain. That may make things tricky
for Ferrari and Williams, both of which struggled in the race due to
needing an extra pit stop. Quite hard to see how tyre wear will go as
it'll probably be quite a bit cooler and overcast on race day than
during qualifying.
Found
it difficult to come up with a clear good bet, so I slept on it and,
the next day, checked the sector 3 and speed trap times. Was
surprised that Williams were so high up on both, though my concern
about their tyre wear remains. I'm inclined to back Massa over Bottas
on the basis that the clean (odd) side of the track may help off the
line, Massa's had some great starts this year, and he was faster
(apparently some brake issue or other hampered him in Q3, if it's
serious he'll be allowed to change it on safety grounds).
I
looked at several potential bets:
Top
6 for either of the Force India drivers
Vettel
podium/winner without Rosberg/Hamilton
Massa
for a podium
Both
Force Indias to score
Hulkenberg
to be top 6 is one of my go to bets, on the basis the car's better in
the race than qualifying and he's a top driver. He's 3.5, and Perez
5, to be top 6. The problem is trying to work out who'll finish ahead
of them. Mercedes are a given. I'd be surprised if Red Bull failed to
finish ahead as well. Williams is hard to tell. They have the pace to
be there but in races they have tended to drift backwards. I'm not
convinced Toro Rosso or McLaren will put up much of a fight, although
Alonso could stand in Force India's way. I like the idea of this
bet... not sure if I can see it happening.
I
have great confidence in Vettel's abilities. The downside is that the
others (especially Williams) seem to be very close, and the Williams
will murder the Red Bull on the straights. If he can pull ahead of
the DRS zone he may well be able to drive off into the sunset (well,
in 3rd, he'll still be a day and a half behind Mercedes),
but if not he could simply get mugged by both Williams. I also wonder
whether his car will make it to the end, as he's had a fair number of
reliability-related retirements recently. He's evens for a podium,
which is pretty short given there's probably only one place left
after Mercedes have thrown their beach towels over 1st and
2nd.
For
the other bets I considered a big question and difficulty was trying
to work out just how good or bad Williams will be in this race. They
have tended to qualify well and underperform in the race. But what if
they don't? With Betfair, Massa's 4.8 for a podium and a surprisingly
long 5.9 for winner without Hamilton or Rosberg. It's probably going
to be colder for the race than qualifying which should, perhaps, make
the tyres last longer (which would help Williams more than other
teams).
I
rate both the Force India drivers and their car. However, it hasn't
been updated and they do start from just 11th and 13th.
That said, they have often started poorly and finished well. 2.25 for
both to score is pretty tempting. My concern would be that Perez
hasn't finished about half the races so far.
Despite
sleeping on it, I still found this rather difficult to try and
predict. In the end I went for:
Vettel,
podium, 2.3 (Betfair)
Hulkenberg,
top 6, 3.5 (Ladbrokes)
I
think Williams will go backwards in the race. Ferrari may also
struggle.
The
grid was set up in a very tricky way for betting, but it's very
nicely poised for an exciting race, from the duel at the front to the
battle for the final podium spot down to a scrap for the last few
points. I'm rather looking forward to it.
Morris
Dancer
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