Austria: post-race analysis

Well, not sure it necessarily qualified as entertaining or profitable.

Sadly, my bet didn't come off, so the race was red. I got certain predictions right (hard to overtake, Williams genuinely competitive) but the team was strategically inept, in a rather silly, simple way. If they'd been wiser then a win was perhaps possible, and a better overall result likely. Still very good for Williams, but it could easily have been better. That said, I don't think my bet would've come off even if they'd been smarter.

Off the line Hamilton got a flyer and Rosberg passed Bottas, only to be repassed on the very same lap by the Finn.

From then on the top four had a private tussle. Williams were slow reacting to Mercedes' initial pit stops, ending up Rosberg-Bottas-Hamilton-Massa, and then repeated the inexplicable mistake at the second stops, resulting in Rosberg-Hamilton-Bottas-Massa, which was the end result. I think the only non-pit stop pass between them was Bottas on Rosberg on lap 1.

Through the race Alonso and Magnussen lost a place (to Hamilton) but basically trundled round, holding station (Perez eventually passed the Dane). Late on the Spaniard had a brief charge at Massa but it wasn't enough to trouble the Brazilian.

Vettel lost power, regained it (being at that stage a lap down) and eventually had to retire the car after duelling with Gutierrez for last place. He's had rotten luck this year, and it continues unabated.

Perez recovered very well from a 16th place start to finish 6th, ahead of Magnussen and behind Alonso. His team mate (who started 10th after having his team discounted in Q3 for overrunning the white lines) could only manage 9th, which is quite disappointing.

Ricciardo went backwards to 8th, making the Red Bull Ring one of the worst results (perhaps the worst) for the team this year. Raikkonen got 10th, as he continues to struggle with his prancing horse.

Williams should not be happy with the result. Whilst Mercedes were faster the difference was small and the Williams was faster on the straights (no Williams was passed by a Mercedes, I believe, on track). With smarter strategy there were more points for the taking. That said, they can be happy that their car was clearly best of the rest and the first to truly take the fight to the Mercedes this year.

Alonso and Perez both punched above their weight, as did Magnussen. Force India may be a little displeased that Hulkenberg didn't do better, but Ferrari and McLaren will probably be glad of the points.

Both Mercedes appeared to have brake issues, but it's difficult to say how much that slowed them. Hamilton never really had a run at Rosberg.

Here's how the Constructors line up:
Mercedes 301
Red Bull 143
Ferrari 98
Force India 87
Williams 85
McLaren 72

There's potential for great change, excepting Mercedes. Red Bull will probably retain second, but that's not certain. I think Ferrari could be overhauled by both Force India and Williams. McLaren won't drop any further back (Toro Rosso are only on 12) but it's hard to see them making much headway either. This is a golden opportunity for Force India and Williams to get a great finish and, with it, a substantial bonus in prize money.

Rosberg now has a 29 point lead over Hamilton. Still a long way to go, but this is exactly what Hamilton didn't need. Rosberg got the win, and extended his lead. If Hamilton can chip away at it before the mid-season interval between Hungary and Belgium he'll be fairly happy. But if Rosberg can keep it steady or increase it a little the pressure may tell on Hamilton.


Morris Dancer

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