Canada: pre-qualifying
Rather
stupidly, I managed to miss all of the first two practice sessions. I
blame Alistair and Morrigan for this.
The
tyres for this weekend are soft and supersoft. The soft tyres will be
used at three out of four of the forthcoming races, so how well a car
works with those tyres will play a significant role in determining
their immediate term performance.
In
P1 Alonso was sixteen-thousandths of a second ahead of Hamilton, who
was a tenth and a half ahead of Rosberg. Vettel was the lion's share
of a second behind, followed by Bottas, Ricciardo, Button, Magnussen,
Raikkonen and Vergne.
In
P2 Hamilton was fastest, with an almost identical gap to Rosberg as
in P1. Vettel was three-tenths back, followed by Alonso and
Raikkonen, with Massa, Bottas, Magnussen, Button and Vergne rounding
out the top 10.
At
this stage it looks like Hamilton has a consistent but slender
advantage over Rosberg. More interesting is the seeming leap in
performance Ferrari has made relative to Red Bull. The Prancing Horse
has been upgraded, but in recent times Ferrari's upgrades often seem
to make the car worse, so this may be a pleasant surprise for the
team. Williams seems a shade ahead of McLaren.
Force
India are surprisingly nowhere. Of course, practice can be a time for
sandbagging, but the Force India wasn't updated in Monaco, when most
cars were, and hasn't been here. They may be in Austria (next race),
but it could be as late as Silverstone before the car's upgraded. Bit
surprised by that, as Force India has been surprisingly good at
keeping their car competitive throughout a season for a midfield
team. They do have the advantage of two good drivers, though.
P3
had Hamilton fastest, but Massa split the Mercedes to be second
quickest. Rosberg was next, then Alonso, Ricciardo, Raikkonen,
Bottas, Kvyat, Vergne and Vettel. Once again the Force Indias were
just outside the top 10, and McLaren are looking rather ropey (Lotus
also appear to have gone backwards, whereas Sauber have merely
maintained their dire form).
Weirdly,
the Mercedes was fastest on its soft tyre. Bit odd, could be
sandbagging, or it could be that the Mercedes is great on the softs
and a bit worse on the supersofts.
Ferrari
really do seem to have made a step forward, and the Williams are
looking racier than I expected. However, Williams tend to go
backwards in races, whereas Force India tend to go forwards, so we'll
see how that works out. Unlike some 'modern' circuits, Canada has
scope for plenty of overtaking.
Hamilton
seems extremely likely to get pole. 1.38 is too short to tempt me,
especially given Rosberg could spring a surprise and the Wall of
Champions could prove a problem if Hamilton gets a bit over-excited.
There
was over three-tenths of a second between Rosberg and Alonso (fourth
in P3), and four-tenths between Massa (second) and Alonso. That's a
sizeable gap. Unfortunately there was only a very small sum available
at 3.5 for Massa to be top 3, and just over evens (given varying temperatures and potential
mistakes) is not long enough.
I
was also tempted by the notion of laying Vettel to reach Q3 (a
cluster of 5-6 drivers were very near the cusp of the top 10) but
evens is not attractive.
So,
I expect a Hamilton pole, a very tight fight for second and third,
and likewise to reach Q3. Will Williams live up to their potential?
Will Force India reach Q3?
Not
sure if the pre-race piece will be up this evening or tomorrow
morning.
Morris
Dancer
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