UK: pre-race 2024
Well, I never thought the McLarens would be behind both Mercedes. Intriguing for the race, and nice to see three Britons in the first three grid slots for the first time since 1968. Not good for my Piastri bet, though. I blame lack of judgement for this betting failure.
Qualifying began on a track that was wet but rapidly drying. Everyone but Hulkenberg went out on the inters initially (the German relaxed in his garage) and soon switched to softs. However, Perez beached his car in a gravel trap, bringing out a red flag. He wasn’t alone in having troubles there, with multiple drivers going wide and through the gravel but they all managed to keep going (Verstappen took some car damage this way). Bottas, Magnussen, Ocon, Perez, and Gasly (who has an impressive 50 place grid penalty for taking a ton of new parts) were eliminated here.
Session 2 of qualifying had some interesting notes, as the dry track saw Logan Sargeant put his Williams up into 12th. He’s left it rather late, but this is an impressive result for the American driver. He’s also right behind Charles Leclerc, who got eliminated. Not great for a flailing Ferrari team. Both RBs and Zhou Guanyu departed at this stage, but the Sauber driver’s 14th is among his better recent results.
Verstappen looked a bit out of it going into qualifying, with McLaren seeming strong and Mercedes likewise. In the end, it was the Mercedes that proved better, with Russell snatching pole from Hamilton to secure a front row lockout. Norris had to do with row two, ahead of Verstappen, and putting all three Britons in the top 3. A late lap by the Dutchman knocked Piastri down to 5th, alongside Hulkenberg, who is driving very well this season.
Sainz in 7th is the best Ferrari could manage, while Aston Martin has Stroll 8th and the unusually struggling Alonso 10th. Albon put his Williams between the Astons, in 9th.
The weather forecast at the time of writing is a 50-70% chance of light rain showers. But knowing British weather this means anything from bone dry to a downpour is feasible.
Early Betting Thoughts
Hulkenberg, top 6
Verstappen, win
Hulkenberg’s Haas was a couple of tenths ahead of Sainz in qualifying, and the German driver has been doing very well lately. There’s also a chance of the chaps ahead punting one another off (see 2021, or the last race). He’s only 2.2 to be top 6, however, which is a bit tight given his car.
Verstappen was driving a wounded beast yet still managed to secure 4th place. Although he made an error last time and both he and Norris got unlucky punctures from it, his performance is something I think has been underestimated. With greater pace from a mended/replaced floor and that skill, he’s still very much in the fight. Verstappen is just 3 to win, which is too short given the competition all around him.
Browsing the Markets
Piastri, win each way, 26
Hulkenberg, win group 2, 5.5
The top four are all very tight for the win (3 to 4 for each one). Piastri is out at 26. he should’ve inherited the win last time rather than Russell, on pace (track limits cost him his qualifying time, and it was a small transgression), and earlier this year lost out on a podium (which I’d backed) due to bad safety car timing. I do agree the others are likely to be top 2, but not to the extent the odds should shift from 26 to 3 or 4.
Sometimes the winning groups markets can be interesting. Hulkenberg’s group 2 includes Sainz and Leclerc, Alonso and Stroll. His qualifying time is two-tenths better than most of them and six-tenths better than Alonso.
I’ve backed Piastri each way at 29, and Hulkenberg to win his group at 5.75. We’ll see whether this is sleepy foolishness or if the outsiders can have a fun race.
Morris Dancer
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