Hungary: pre-race 2024
Qualifying was a very stop-start affair, with a pair of red flags.
Q1 saw the first of these. Rain had fallen but ceased shortly before qualifying, and everybody went out on soft tyres. Perez’s poor run of form continued when he binned his Red Bull and brought out an initial red flag. At the time, he seemed likely to reach Q2 anyway, but track improvement put him down in 16th. Russell also went out, partly because his team didn’t put in enough fuel for him to try a final lap. Zhou Guanyu departed at this stage, as did both Alpines, which had stayed in when everyone else went out (wrongly assuming the lightly falling rain would preclude lap time improvements).
In Q2 Bottas qualified a highly respectable 12th, right behind Hulkenberg. Both Williams failed to proceed, but Sargeant was just one tenth (and one place) behind Albon. Magnussen was the slowest man in the session.
And so to Q3, which was looking like the McLarens, Verstappen, and maybe Hamilton would vie for pole. Norris was fastest, followed by Piastri, when Tsunoda smashed his car up and brought out a late red flag with just over 2 minutes on the clock. While everyone who isn’t Dutch did go out again, only Ricciardo improved (putting himself ahead of Tsunoda on the fifth row).
So McLaren locked out the front row and, finally, a sound bet on Piastri came off in the minor way. There was only a couple of hundredths between them. Verstappen was a similarly tight margin off pole, but there’s a four-tenths gap between him and Sainz, who share the second row. Hamilton and Leclerc comprise the third row, ahead of Alonso and Stroll (Aston Martin enjoying something of a return to form).
Early Betting Thoughts
Piastri, win each way
Piastri/Verstappen, lead lap 1
Hulkenberg, points
No Safety Car
On pace, the top three were a long way ahead of the race but very close among one another. Piastri starts 2nd, and is 7.5 for the win. Each way, this is well worth considering. He could’ve won a couple of recent races, but for a qualifying lap deletion and daft team strategy.
Norris often starts poorly. Verstappen, and Piastri, tend to do rather better. And passing is hard, so both have even more incentive than usual to try and get ahead immediately. Norris can be laid at 1.49, or Piastri backed at 5.5 and Verstappen at 6. Not something I’ve backed for a while, but tempted by this one too.
Hulkenberg was a hundredth off knocking out Hamilton and claiming his Q3 slot. He’s been driving very well indeed of late, though I think Hungary might suit his car a little less than Austria/Silverstone. He’s 2.5 for points which is probably fair but not generous.
Qualifying saw two red flags, but this was due to the very slightly slippery conditions that caused wobbles here and there. The race should be dry and the nature of the track promotes large gaps between cars of equal pace. You can back No Safety Car at 1.78 (shorter than I’d imagined) on Betfair, or take the 2.3 on Ladbrokes for one to appear. Or both for a wafer-thin guaranteed profit of pennies.
Browsing the Market
As is traditional I perused the market for any interesting possibilities. However, nothing really grabbed me.
I backed Piastri at 5.6 and Verstappen at 6.8 on the Betfair exhange. Not only are the odds slightly better but the drivers are named, so if Norris can’t make the grid then it still works (Ladbrokes has ‘the driver from the second’ and ‘the driver from third’). For this, I split one stake between them.
Morris Dancer
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