Belgium: pre-race 2024

 

Qualifying started wet, and Q1 saw both Haas drivers, Tsunoda, Sargeant, and Zhou Guanyu leave the stage. Tsunoda also has a 60 place grid penalty, so his qualifying position is rather irrelevant to his grid slot.

Albon was the fastest chap to depart in Q2, just three-thousandths slower than Perez. Gasly, Ricciardo, Bottas, and Stroll also failed to progress. The wet but drying yet also raining somewhat conditions made it very difficult to tell how things would go. At this stage Verstappen looked very much the man to beat.

More rain fell ahead of Q3 so everybody wanted to rush out and set their time as soon as possible (Hamilton first, then Russell, Piastri, Ocon, Norris, Alonso, Sainz, Leclerc, Perez, Verstappen). After the first runs, the McLarens and Mercedes were very close, with the Ferraris behind but Red Bull fastest by a mile. Perez was two-tenths up on Hamilton/Piastri, and Verstappen was six-tenths faster. Interestingly, the McLarens and Mercedes stayed out to do another run while the others came in for fresh intermediates. Also, Perez and the Ferraris did their first runs on used tyres. Only Norris improved, going ahead of Piastri but behind Hamilton.

Leclerc improved hugely on his second run, and because of the penalty for Verstappen that means Leclerc will start at the front of the grid, alongside Perez. Kudos to anyone who put money on that. Hamilton and Norris form row two, with Piastri and Russell on the third. Sainz and Alonso make the fourth row Spanish territory, with Ocon and Albon on the fifth, and Verstappen right behind them.

Forecast is for a dry race. Reminder on penalties that Verstappen starts 10 places further back, and Tsunoda has an impressive 60 place grid penalty.

 

Early Betting Thoughts

Verstappen, win

Norris, win

Piastri, podium

Perez, win

Verstappen starts 11^th. Can he win from there? In 2023 he started 6^th and won, and in 2022 he started 14^th and won. Which looks ominous. There’s a reason he takes engine penalties in Spa, it seems. However, this season, of late, the McLaren has been faster and starts several places grid up the road (4^th and 5^th, so from Verstappen’s perspective that could’ve been worse). It’s entirely credible he could win. But 2.75 for a guy starting from 11^th with both McLarens and both Mercedes ahead of him is too short for me.

Speaking of too short, Norris at 3 with his team mate right behind him is also too tight to tempt. Safety car timing can be especially critical here, as the very long lap means if you’re past the pit lane you can lose a bundle of places. I do still expect the McLarens and Verstappen to be fastest on race day but the odds are too short.

Piastri at 1.57, likewise, is too short for a podium, as the Ferraris, Mercedes, Perez, Verstappen, and Norris all provide stark competition.

Perez to win initially seems like an interesting concept but I think it’s mathematically flawed. Verstappen is way faster and ended up about eight-tenths ahead in qualifying. Yes, that’s wet and the relative performance of cars will differ in the dry but the gap between these two drivers in the same car will still be enormous. If Perez is fast enough to beat Ferrari, Mercedes, and McLaren then I think it takes a Verstappen DNF to make it likely Perez will actually win, because otherwise the Red Bull pace advantage will make it possible for Verstappen to get all the way into 1^st. Perez is 9 to win, each way, and Verstappen is 9 not to be classified. (I wrote the above before checking the odds, incidentally).

 

Browsing the Markets

Unlike last week when I had an unusually easy time and numerous bets (cunningly forgetting to tip one) this time it’s trickier. So I perused the markets.

Leader lap 1 - 2^nd driver 3.5, 3^rd driver 7

There’s a short run to the first corner followed by an uphill spot through Eau Rouge and then a long straight, which often sees the lead driver under serious pressure. Because of this, and the fact both the Red Bull and Mercedes seem faster generally than the Ferrari (I suspect Leclerc just put in a stonking qualifying lap) backing others to lead the first lap may be worthwhile.

Sadly, the delightful group markets weren’t up when I checked and I may be pushed for time today.

 

I’ve split a single stake so it’s two-thirds on the 2^nd driver (Perez) and one-third on the 3^rd driver (Hamilton). I prefer the wording of Betfair’s market but the odds are notably worse. With boost, the odds go to 3.6 and 7.5 respectively.

 

Morris Dancer