Spain: pre-race 2024

Going into qualifying is seemed as if seven drivers from four teams were in with a shot of pole. In the event, it was a familiar pair at the front.

Q3 began with the departure of both Williams and RB/VCARB/STUPIDNAME, as well as Magnussen. No real shocks, although Albon in 19th is lower than usual for him.

Q2 was also not too surprising, except that both Saubers made it this far before being eliminated (12th for Bottas is not bad at all). Both Aston Martins also went out here, as did Hulkenberg.

And so to Q1. In qualifying it was looking once again like a Verstappen pole. The Mercedes’ promise from practice had faded and Ferrari looked a little off the pace. And then Verstappen put in a lap that placed him a few tenths ahead of the field. But, late on, Norris drove an excellent qualifying lap to finish a couple of hundredths faster than the Dutchman to claim pole. The pair form up the front row, three-tenths ahead of Hamilton and Russell on row two.

 

For those paying attention, this means it was (narrowly) lucky my 11 on Hamilton each way could not be placed.

The third row is Ferrari land, Leclerc ahead of Sainz, while Gasly and Perez qualified behind (NB Perez has a 3 place grid penalty for trundling around Montreal with a ruined rear wing), Ocon and Piastri (who fluffed his qualifying lap and didn’t set a time) completing the top 10.

Rain is forecast. It should clear up before the race start, but bear that in mind.

 

Early Betting Thoughts

Norris, win

Hamilton, podium

Passing’s hard in Spain (remember 2016) so starting on pole is pretty handy. Even more so than elsewhere. Norris is 2.8 to win with Betfair or 2.4 (each way available) with Ladbrokes. Even at those short odds, this is worth considering.

Hamilton is only 1.8 for a podium. This is less tempting, though still credible, because he’s got a stack of pretty-much-as-fast drivers in and behind him. A slightly poor start or pit stop error and he could easily find himself four places further back. Odds might be too tight here.

 

Still unable to log into Ladbrokes so I backed Norris on Betfair at 2.84 for the win.

 

Morris Dancer

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