Austria: pre-race 2024

In the sprint there was a decent amount of on-track action, including between the McLarens and Verstappen at the sharp end.

In qualifying, things were very close, as one would expect on such a short lap. Q1 saw both Williams and Saubers depart, which is not too much of a shock. Stroll also exited, underlining the loss of relative pace Aston Martin has suffered, the counterpoint to the improvements others (notably Alpine) have achieved since the season’s start.

In Q2, this was emphasised by Alonso being slowest. Also out were both RBs, Gasly, and Magnussen (the latter two both had team mates who made Q3).

While margins were close, this was very much behind Verstappen, who, after recent close shaves, was looking ominously dominant again. And so it proved, with a whopping four-tenths margin for pole over Norris, who pipped Russell, who has looked to have the whip hand over Hamilton all weekend long. Russell is joined on row two by Sainz.

Row three is Hamilton and Leclerc, who might’ve gone better but botched his final fast lap and took a gravel trap detour. Piastri could only manage 7th, which is disappointing after a strong sprint qualifying and race. He starts alongside Perez. Hulkenberg and Ocon bring up the rear of the top 10.

The race should be dry, although thundery showers are forecast for shortly afterwards.

 

Early Betting Thoughts

Piastri podium

Ricciardo points

Piastri only qualified in 7th but he clearly had more pace and went well in the sprint race. He’s 3.5 for a podium. I do think the top two places should be pretty much sewn up with Verstappen winning and Norris behind. Yesterday showed on-track passing was eminently possible. The 3.5 is ok but not outstanding. The 6.4 for this on Betfair feels too long with the McLaren being quick, passing being possible, and Piastri performing well in race(ish) conditions yesterday.

Ricciardo qualified 11th, 0.01s off the pace. In the sprint he advanced a little from 16th to 14th, while Ocon and Gasly dropped back a little. The chap ahead of him in the race is Ocon. Hulkenberg is one place further up, and while I like the German driver the Haas does tend to go backwards as well. Ricciardo is 2.6 for points, which is reasonably appealing (2.8 on Betfair).

 

Due to excitingly being able to log into Ladbrokes again I then browsed the markets.

Safety car, 1.73

Norris, win each way 5

There was some close action in the sprint race and there are plenty of gravel traps around the circuit. I think there’s a decent chance of a safety car. One appeared in 2023, with a VSC in 2022, and the full safety car in 2021.

Norris to win each way is a really boring bet. But also one very likely to come off. However, if it’s just the each way aspect that does that’s 4/1 at a third the odds minus half the stake so the profit margin is too slim to recommend. Of course, if he wins outright it’s fine, and he may trouble Verstappen more today than he did yesterday.

I’ve decided to back Piastri for a podium at 6.4 on Betfair, hedged at evens, and a safety car on Ladbrokes at 1.75 (minor increase due to boosting).

 

Morris Dancer

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