Canada: pre-race 2024

After a mostly wet practice on Friday, dry FP3 was followed by dry qualifying.

The track ramped up rapidly and a few drivers struggled. First part of qualifying witness yet another departure for Perez, the fastest man eliminated. Bottas, Ocon, Hulkenberg (little surprising as well), and Zhou Guanyu also failed to advance. Ocon will start last due to his 5 place grid penalty from last race’s kamikaze attack on his team mate.

Things stayed very close in Q2, and the shock here was both Ferraris going out (Leclerc ahead of Sainz). On Friday they’d looked good, but dry Saturday was another matter. Sargeant qualified 13th, ahead of Magnussen and Gasly.

And so to Q3. It looked like Mercedes, McLaren, Verstappen, and maybe even the Aston Martins were in with a shot of pole.

In the end, it was Russell who bagged it. I never would’ve predicted that (if I’d backed an outsider it would’ve been Hamilton). He and Verstappen got identical times but because the Briton got it first he starts on pole. Norris, in 3rd, was a whole twenty-one thousandths slower. Rather tasty. And his team mate was only eight-hundredths off that, making the second row McLaren land.

Worth remembering at this point that Russell and Verstappen have a pretty solid chance of contact if they get their elbows out. If they do, and the McLarens aren’t collateral damage, the papaya team might be in with a good shot of victory.

Ricciardo and Alonso start on the third row, a good result for both men, while Hamilton must be disappointed to only be leading the fourth row (ahead of Tsunoda). Stroll and Albon bring up the rear of the top 10.

At the time of writing there seems to be a 50-60% chance of thundery showers.

 

Early Betting Thoughts

Norris, win each way

Piastri podium

Hamilton, podium

Norris is in great form and on pace should have a solid chance of troubling both Verstappen and Russell. Starting where he does is not ideal but he’s 6 to win. Each way on Norris is a decent bet.

Piastri is 2.2 for a podium. Perhaps too short given the level of competition there seems to be. If I were to back him, the 13 each way on him winning might be more tempting.

Hamilton is 3.5 for a podium. I think that’s too short. He starts a third of the way down the grid, and while he’s great around the circuit he’s also up against very fast chaps from multiple teams. Certainly not impossible but not fantastic odds.

 

Browsing the Market

Russell, win each way, 4.5

Russell starts on pole, which is the best indicator of success. He’s 4.5 to win, despite his car looking good in both practice and qualifying. This is worth considering.

 

The most appealing bets are both on the winner, Russell and Norris at 4.5 and 6 respectively. I’ve also set up a lay on Russell at 1.4.

Anyway, race starts at 7pm.

 

Morris Dancer

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