Azerbaijan: pre-qualifying 2022

And so to Azerbaijan, a bonkers but entertaining mix of Monaco and a huge straight. It’s been a happy hunting ground for Perez, who has also struck a rich seam of form recently, so we’ll see how things go for the Mexican.

In first practice Perez was top dog, a tenth ahead of Leclerc, with Verstappen two-tenths further back, and Sainz following by the same margin. Alonso was best of the rest, ahead of Hamilton, Tsunoda, Russell, Gasly, and Ocon.

Come second practice, the top two had reversed, Leclerc a quarter of a second ahead of Perez, with Verstappen a tenth behind his team mate. Alonso dragged his car into 4th, albeit nine-tenths off the ultimate pace, and a tenth ahead of Sainz. Gasly and Russell followed, with Tsunoda, Ocon, and Norris rounding out the top 10.

At the end of third practice Perez was the fastest man on the track, seven-hundredths ahead of Leclerc. Verstappen was two-tenths further back, with a tenth and a half to Sainz. Norris was next but 1.2s off the ultimate pace, and just half a tenth ahead of a resurgent Ricciardo, while Gasly, Russell, Ocon, and Vettel rounded out the top 10.

Very tight at the top. Perez had some loss due to traffic on his last fast lap (he didn’t improve his time), Verstappen lost a final fast lap to traffic, and Leclerc buggered up the first corner. I’d be somewhat surprised if Sainz snagged pole, though it’s far from impossible, and the other three at least are certainly in contention.

 

The McLarens and others will require some sort of divine intervention to get pole.

Hmm. Leclerc is 2.1 for pole, Verstappen 3, Perez 3.5. And Sainz is 17 (20 with Betfair). The Spaniard has looked a step behind but those are long odds.

So, the bets that appear potentially intriguing for qualifying are Perez (3.85 on Betfair or 3.5 on Ladbrokes) and Sainz, each way on Ladbrokes. I really don’t think the Spaniard will get it, but the odds are lengthier than they ought to be. If you have a free bet I’d definitely stick it on Sainz each way.

I’ve backed Perez for pole at 3.85 on Betfair, with a hedge set at 1.8. Bit conservative, but I’m hoping it comes off.

 

Qualifying is at 3pm. Race is at midday (a slightly annoying time for me. There may or may not be a post-race ramble).

Morris Dancer

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