Canada: pre-race 2022

 

Well, it wasn’t a real tip so doesn’t count but if anyone did back my vague suggestion to put a free bet on Alonso being top 3 it came off.

The session started soggy, full wet weather, and while intermediates were in use by the final part the circuit never got quite dry enough for slicks (despite Russell’s attempt in Q3). So we got some useful info on wet weather running, should be get that during the race.

In Q1, losing Latifi was not necessarily a shock but it was a surprise to see both Vettel and Gasly out so early. Stroll also exited this stage as did the penalised Tsunoda.

Leclerc was the slowest in Q2 but does start 19^th (ahead of also-penalised Tsunoda). Bottas was the fastest eliminated chap, slightly surprisingly as he was outqualified by Zhou Guanyu (let’s hope the Chinese driver can at least have a trouble-free race). Albon’s 12^th for Williams is pretty tasty, especially after he (gently) put his car into a barrier but managed to reverse it. No such luck for Perez, 13^th, possibly because he was on grass rather than tarmac and whose adventure caused a red flag. Norris was bedevilled by reliability trouble and could only manage 14^th.

And so to the top 10. It looked like Verstappen was on for pole. And he was, by a mile, claiming it by seven-tenths ahead of (checks notes) Fernando Alonso. Yep, the wily Spaniard was in fine fettle all session and saved the best for last, pipping Sainz to the 2^nd place post by a tenth. Sainz was eight-tenths and one place ahead of Hamilton.

Meanwhile, row three is Haasland, Magnussen ahead of Schumacher. Ocon got 7^th, making it a very solid qualifying for Alpine (the top team collectively). Russell’s 8^th was down to trying slicks on a surface not yet ready for them, but if it had worked he’d be on pole. Ricciardo got 9^th, outqualifying Norris, and Zhou Guanyu ended up just one place ahead of his team mate.

The weather forecast is for the race to be sunny and dry throughout. It appears the only penalties are those of Tsunoda and Leclerc. Cars being out of position due to penalties and wet qualifying certainly make this a bit unusual.

 

Early betting thoughts:
Russell, podium
Russell, top 6
Sainz, win
Sainz, not to be classified
Ocon, top 6
Leclerc, podium

Russell is probably going to be a lot better in the race than his qualifying suggests, as it was too soon for slicks. The Haas cars are also pretty likely to go backwards, and Sainz’s car might well explode. This makes top 6 eminently possible, and a podium an unlikely but not impossible outcome (I think he’s had two this year). He’s 1.44 to be top 6 and 6 for a podium. The 1.44 is not tempting given the potential of crashing (odds too short for me). Podium odds somewhat more tempting but could be better.

Sainz has been relatively close on pace to Leclerc this weekend, and I’d expect him to finish 2^nd all things considered. But his car does blow up every now and then which makes it an iffy bet. However, he’s still 6 to win each way (or 8.2 with Betfair). And 4.5 not to be classified. I’m a bit tempted to try putting those two together, but we’ll see how other things stack up.

Alpine had a great day in the wet, though it remains to be seen if they can replicate that in the dry. Finishing 6^th does mean making up ground on at least one car ahead, and that with the likes of Russell, Perez, and Leclerc trying to make up ground. 3 to finish top 6 is probably too short, although the probability of surpassing Haas does make it worth considering.

Leclerc is a very fast, very good driver, and he’s got one of the top cars on the grid. If he can survive lap 1 carnage and reliability woe (at least as big a risk) then I think he has a good shot of making it onto the podium. Odds are 3.5, though his biggest obstacle may be Perez (2.75). Should his car not explode, I’d be more inclined to back the Monegasque, though, he’s looked faster this weekend.

 

And so to perusing the markets:

Alpine, double top 6, 3.75

Leclerc, versus Sainz, 2.9

Alpine starts 2^nd and 7^th and while I expect Alonso to lose out to Sainz just because the Ferrari is plainly faster in dry conditions, Ocon could finish top 6 due to the Haas cars going backwards. The problem here is the same as the Ocon top 6 bet. If you think the Ferraris will explode again this is a good bet. If you think Ferrari might finish the race, it probably is not.

Speaking of Ferraris exploding, Leclerc beating Sainz at 2.9 is essentially a guess as to which will blow up first (Sainz, in this betting scenario). If Leclec finished 18^th but Sainz doesn’t finish at all and gets listed 19^th, this comes off. On a 50/50 coin toss, 2.9 are good odds on heads.

Mixed up qualifying and penalties does make this an interesting one and there are lots of potential bets. The major question mark is over Ferrari, which affects not only bets on them but others (Alpine, most obviously).

I’ve decided to back Sainz at 6, each way, for the win. All else being equal he should finish 2^nd. Assuming his Ferrari doesn’t blow up, which is the main risk factor.

As an aside, he was 16 before the weekend started for the win.

Probably won’t be a post-race ramble, given how late the race will finish.

 

Morris Dancer