Azerbaijan: pre-race 2022

Pole looked set to be tight, and while it seemed that way for much of qualifying Leclerc’s final stonking lap was unbeatable and secured him pole by quite some margin.

Red flags have been common this year and at Baku in the past, so a double crash by Stroll (the second parting ways with his front wing) was not too surprising. In addition to Stroll, both Haas drivers and both Williams exited.

In Q2 Hamilton earned himself an investigation for driving unnecessarily slowly, so keep your eyes peeled to see if there’s any penalty. However, both Mercedes managed to escape whereas both McLarens failed to do so and line up 11th and 12th (Norris leading). Both Alfa’s also went out, Zhou Guanyu ahead of Bottas, and Ocon sits between the team mate pairs.

At this stage it was looking very close for pole between the four top chaps, and so it remained after the first runs, with Sainz surprisingly faster than his team mate. Come the second runs, the Spaniard buggered his first sector to the tune of half a second while the Monegasque wrang the neck of his Ferrari to go faster by six-tenths for a seemingly (and actually) unassailable pole. Perez did his best but could only get the runner up spot, right ahead of his team mate (Sainz ending up 4th).

Russell was best of the rest, leading row three alongside Gasly, with Hamilton and Tsunoda next. Vettel did well to get his Aston Martin into 9th, and has Fernando Alonso for company on the fifth row.

The weather is set to be dry, and it appears Hamilton was (slightly surprisingly) not penalised for driving slowly during qualifying.

Early betting thoughts:
Double McLaren points
Double Red Bull podium
Sainz podium 

McLaren start 11th and 12th, and Ricciardo’s been on good form this weekend. They’re 2.87 for a double points finish, which is… kind of ok. Not a bad bet but not stonking value either.

Red Bull are 1.67 for a double podium. Given potential reliability woe and Sainz lurking behind them, plus safety car shenanigans, too short for me.

Speaking of Sainz, he has looked the slowest of the four this weekend. However, he’s also one of a quartet with cars way ahead of everyone else and if anyone ahead suffers reliability woe or gets shafted by safety car timing then he’s the man who stands to benefit. I didn’t back and hedge him at 20 for pole but I suggest that would’ve been easily green. For a podium, he’s 3, which is a little shorter than I was expecting, but something to consider. You can also back him each way 17 (third the odds top 2) to win.

 

In accordance with the principles of Saint Irenaeus, I perused the markets and saw the following:

Zhou Guanyu to beat Bottas, 2.75
Ricciardo to beat Norris, 3.3
Top four = Red Bull + Ferrari, 2.8
Ver, Lec, Per podium (any order), 2.4
Over 2.5 leaders, 1.57
First lap leader, Perez, 5.4 (Verstappen 11) 

Zhou Guanyu has habitually finished behind Bottas in both qualifying and the race, but he’s looked more competitive this weekend. Downside is he’s only one place ahead, but 2.75 is still worthy of consideration. Similar for Ricciardo, (though a single place behind Norris that’s far closer than usual).

If the top four finish then barring crazy occurrences they should be nailed on for the top four positions. The problem is that Azerbaijan is the home of crazy occurrences, and this is a four contingency bet.

 A similar problem affects the VerLecPer podium bet (otherwise I’d just pair this with Sainz for the podium at 3 and enjoy winning).

Over 2.5 leaders seems very likely but 1.57 are damned short odds.

The long straight makes it tempting to back someone who isn’t Leclerc to lead lap 1, although the last three races here have seen the driver who started in the lead retain it during the course of the first lap. Perez at 5.4 is pretty tempting, though.

So, a lot of ok stuff but nothing that’s remarkable and obvious value, alas. The Sainz, Zhou Guanyu, and Ricciardo bets are probably the most tempting. I’ve decided to heroically split one stake between the Zhou Guanyu and Ricciardo bets (if you have a free bet I’d suggest throwing it on Sainz for the win each way).


There may or may not be a post-race ramble. The race starts at the irksome time of midday (UK time).

Morris Dancer

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