Saudi Arabia: pre-race 2022
Part of the bet came off, and luckily it was the most lucrative part with Perez snagging a first ever pole position. Huzzah! However, the qualifying was also notable for some less happy reasons.
In the first part of qualifying we had a brief red flag due to a Latifi crash but he still starts ahead (probably) of Tsunoda who had to retire with a reliability failure. Hulkenberg and Albon also exited at this stage. Bizarrely, so did Lewis Hamilton, who was over six-tenths behind his team mate and seemed confounded by the lack of pace.
A second and far longer (almost an hour) red flag came in Q2 when Schumacher, then provisionally in the top 10, lost control and had a high impact crash that scattered debris across the circuit and gave him a hospital trip. Big hit but it seems that he’s ok, which is great news.
Both McLarens failed to escape, but they have looked more competitive at this track than last weekend. Zhou and Stroll also didn’t get any further.
At this stage Sainz looked to be challenging Leclerc for pole with Red Bull perhaps a bit further back.
Come Q3’s first runs, Sainz was quickest, ahead of his team mate by a tiny margin. But on the second runs Sainz went yellow, Leclerc went purple, and pole seemed his. Verstappen was unable to challenge due to tyre warming problems, to his consternation. And yet Perez bagged himself a first ever pole position, beating both Ferraris and starting three places ahead of his very highly rated team mate. Rather tasty from the Mexican.
I’ll be honest, my 15 bet on him was predicated more on woe for Leclerc/Verstappen than a pace triumph but I’ll take it. Luck always plays a role and a good slice is no bad thing.
It was also a very good day for Alpine, with Ocon qualifying
5th and Alonso 7th. The filling in this sandwich was
Russell, who starts 10 places ahead of his team mate. And he’s the only
Mercedes-powered chap in the top 10. Bottas is solid in 8th, with
Gasly and Magnussen forming the fifth row.
Ricciardo has a three place grid penalty for impeding Ocon during qualifying, which puts him down to 14th. Schumacher, it appears, will not be in the race. Also worth noting Red Bull think they’ve resolved their reliability woes from last time.
Early betting thoughts:
Perez podium (back or lay)
Alpine points
Alonso top 6
Perez can be backed at 1.6 for a podium, or laid at the same
odds with Betfair. If all the top four finish, someone’s going to be missing
from it. The odds don’t appeal either way.
Alonso and Ocon can each be backed at 1.36 for points. They’re looking in good shape but odds that short very rarely tempt me. On the Alonso top 6 market, he’s 2.6, which is somewhat better.
Anyway, I cast a very sleepy eye over the market to see if anything else leapt out at me (odds are Ladbrokes unless noted otherwise):
Sainz, win, 9 (Betfair)Perez, win, 3.85 (Betfair)
Alpine, winning car, 41
Ocon/Alonso, podium, 9.4/14(Betfair)
Double podium, Red Bull 2.4, Ferrari 2.5
Alpine, double points finish, 1.83
Driver from third (Sainz) to lead lap 1, 13
I was first contemplating Sainz each way on Ladbrokes, but it’s interesting to see the odds discrepancy between that (6.5) and his win result on Betfair at 9. He had the pace to get pole but had a relatively poor final run. Question is how the porpoising will go for the Ferraris under high fuel. The Red Bull has looked steadier. Between that and Verstappen struggling more for tyre warm up, I wonder if Perez at 3.85, with a hedge set up, might be worth considering…
If woe does strike down the top quartet then I’d expect the Alpines to be there to capitalise, and they’re 41. This is definitely an optimistic bet, however, and might be better suited to those who have a free bet or a tiny sum to wager.
On a similar note, but requiring only a pair of calamities ahead of them, Ocon and Alonso would most likely inherit a vacant podium position. I know Russell’s up there, but Alpine have two cars near the sharp end and can also play strategic games.
The double podium odds come at things from the exact opposite angle. If it’s a standard race then you must expect a pair of either Red Bulls or Ferraris up there. But the odds make it possible to back both and end up green. You could also try marrying this to laying all four to end up on the podium with Betfair, although you’d have to be sure the numbers add up.
If both Alpines finish they should score. 1.83 is longer than I expected, probably reflecting the treacherous nature of the circuit.
Hard to say how the start will go. Sainz will have marginally warmer tyres being behind his team mate, while Verstappen’s temperature struggles may compromise his getaway. 13 is roughly what you’d expect for this lap 1 bet.
So, much sleepy intrigue but nothing that quite shakes me
awake with its splendiferous value. Still, I fluked a nice odds qualifying
winner so can’t really complain too much.
I’ve decided to back Alpine to double score at 1.83. Not the bravest of bets, but there we are. Intrigued to see how it plays out. As the race starts at 6pm any post-race ramble will be tomorrow, so that may or may not happen.
Morris Dancer
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