Bahrain: pre-race 2022

I’ll be honest, I thought Verstappen was nailed on for pole. How close both Ferraris were surprised me a lot, but that’s not bad thing.

In Q1 both Aston Martins were out, but Hulkenberg outqualified Stroll. Ricciardo continued his terrible start to the season (but he’s not helped by the car’s unexpected lack of pace). Latifi was slowest, and Tsunoda the fastest of the eliminated drivers.

Every single Q2 elimination came from a different team, highlighting how competitive the midfield is looking this season. Albon and Norris outqualified their team mates but could not proceed further, while Zhou, Schumacher, and Ocon were left behind by their fellow drivers.

In Q3, I expected Verstappen to get pole. Which shows what I know. After the first run he and the Ferraris were all covered by half a tenth, with Sainz leading Leclerc. On the second runs, the Spaniard could not hold on for a maiden pole and had to settle for 3^rd on the grid, behind Verstappen, with Leclerc grabbing pole. Very good result for Ferrari indeed. Sainz starts alongside Perez, who was about a quarter of a second slowest and the same margin ahead of Hamilton.

The Briton finds himself next to a familiar face, as Bottas had a great first qualifying of the year to put his Alfa into 6^th. Magnussen had a similarly good day for Haas but hydraulic difficulties plagued his day and it remains to be seen if this will recur during the race. Alonso’s 8^th is reasonable for Alpine, and puts him ahead of Russell (who blew his second run) and Gasly.

It’s intriguingly poised for the race, with the top two teams mingled on the front rows and unexpected speed from Bottas and Magnussen.

Important note: we have a rule change in qualifying. Drivers in the top 10 no longer have to start on their Q2 tyre but have a free choice. Bear that in mind when betting. 

 

Early betting thoughts
Sainz, podium
Bottas, top 6
Magnussen, not to be classified

Sainz is 1.8 for a podium. I think he has a great shot, although I am a bit concerned about him and Leclerc potentially having some contact into the first corner. Not stellar odds but well worth considering.

Bottas is 2.5 to be top 6 (2.62 with Betfair). I think the top four places are sewn up, and Hamilton’s got plenty of experience to retain his 5^th. Magnussen’s right behind Bottas but potentially iffy reliability could be his undoing. Perhaps a shade short.

The classified markets weren’t up on Ladbrokes at the time of writing, but Magnussen had a lay to be classified of 1.4 (equivalent of 2.5 back) on Betfair. I’m a bit tempted as the car looked a little suspect with the hydraulics going wonky and the Dane, while not Mazepin, isn’t averse to the odd collision.

 

In accordance with custom and tradition, I think browsed the market to see if anything leapt out at me.

Sainz, win, 8.6+lay or 7 each way
Sainz, first lap leader, 11.5
Perez, podium, 2.6 (possibly paired with both Ferraris to be top 3 finishers at 2.5)
Both Ferraris to finish in the top 6, 1.6

I believe Sainz was the only one of the top 3 not to improve on his second run. He has the pace to be on pole and even now he’s just a few-thousandths behind Verstappen. He has the potential to win this race. In addition, the possibility of a slipstream and the top 2 watching each other (plus Red Bull/Verstappen occasionally have poor starts) means he could snatch a surprise lead. Against this is that he may face unhelpful team orders (although the first race is very early to be doing that). This cluster of bets is, nevertheless, quite appealing, although it’s tricky trying to tell which bet offers most value.

Perez has been overlooked a bit, but then, he was a little off the pace of the other chaps. However, he’s also clearly ahead of Hamilton, so if anyone’s going to sneak onto the podium it may be him. Personally, I think this is perhaps unlikely, unless woe strikes those ahead of him.

The Ferraris are either fastest or just behind Red Bull, so both being top 6 when they start 1-3 seems nailed on. I am not a short odds betting fan, but 1.6 (unless malady is suffered) seems value nevertheless.

 

So, Ferrari to finish 6 with both cars at 1.6, Sainz podium at 1.8, and maybe a Sainz win/lead lap 1 bet all look intriguing.

I’ve backed Sainz, odds out to 9, on Betfair to win, hedged at 3. His pace is good enough to be there, and I think his odds are too long. In fact, they’re the same as they were pre-race weekend, yet his performance since has proven he’s right there with Leclerc and Verstappen. I’ve also backed him to be on the podium at 1.83. I think those odds are too long.

 

The race starts at 3pm. Unsure if I’ll bother with post-race analysis this year. Let’s hope Sainz has a cracker.

 

Morris Dancer