Saudi Arabia: post-race analysis 2022

Well, my race bet didn’t come off due to bad luck, but I did fluke qualifying so it’s swings and roundabouts. Race was pretty good and came alive (with some elements of farce) towards the end. Because I knew I’d be writing this the day after I kept notes, so this might be longer than usual…

 

Problems started pre-race as Sainz had a wiring loom issue (which was resolved) and Tsunoda suffered a DNS. With Schumacher out after the previous day’s crash, we had only 18 cars on the grid.

Everyone save Magnussen, Hulkenberg, and Hamilton started on the medium tyre, with those three on the hard.

Off the line, Sainz found himself on the outside and Verstappen needed no second invitation to take the Ferrari’s place and move himself into 3^rd. His team mate, meanwhile, retained the lead. Further back, Zhou was sluggish and not helped when anti-stall kicked in on his Alfa Romeo. Over the first few laps Norris passed Gasly for 10^th and then the Frenchman took the place back. A more permanent English victory over a Frenchman occurred when Russell passed Ocon for 5^th.

Lap 5 saw the Alpines almost collide as Ocon and Alonso engaged in a fierce but skilful tussle for supremacy. This lasted several laps and allowed both Bottas and Magnussen to get close. Eventually, Ocon (then behind) was told to hold station. By lap 10, Hamilton had risen from 15^th to 12^th, making steady progress. At this stage there were a couple of seconds between the leading cars of Perez, Leclerc, Verstappen, and Sainz.

On lap 14, one after he was told to hold station, Ocon was passed by Bottas for 7^th and Hamilton passed Gasly for 10^th. The pit stop window then opened for most people (Ricciardo had stopped unusually early, lap 8), medium chaps swapping onto hards which put the whole field on the same tyre.  However, during this, lap 15, Perez pitted and Leclerc did not. The Mexican then saw cruel fate snatch away a potential victory when Latifi crashed (again), bringing out a safety car and allowing everyone (except the hard-starting trio of Hamilton, Hulkenberg, and Magnussen) to pit cheaply. This put Perez down to 4^th (he was only just behind Sainz and innocently took 3^rd, believing he was ahead of the Spaniard at the safety car line, but did give the place back on-track).

Hulkenberg was running in the points but started to slide inexorably down the order. Hamilton and Magnussen had a private duel for a few laps before the Briton emerged on top. Come lap 35, Alonso passed Magnussen for 7^th. But a lap later capricious fate showed up again and stole all the Spaniard’s power, necessitating a retirement (and making my bet red. On pace, it would have been green, but there we are). A lap later, Ricciardo also had an on-track reliability failure and the VSC emerged.

Hulkenberg and Magnussen were able to pit under the VSC but then the pit lane was closed and Hamilton had to stay out, which was a little unfortunate. But not as unfortunate as Bottas’ lap 38 retirement (the Finn had looked good all day. It’s possible some of these DNFs were down to overheating.

When the VSC ended Verstappen got within half a second of Leclerc for the lead and the pair engaged in a very entertaining battle for the win. It did verge on farce at times as both sought to be behind at the right time for DRS lines, and while Verstappen gained and lost the lead several times he did learn patience, at length, and managed to finally make it stick to win the race by less than a second. Sainz was 3^rd, making it a double Ferrari podium, with the unlucky Perez down in 4^th. The fastest lap went to he, Leclerc.

Russell got 5^th, and while Hamilton ended up down in 10^th that was mostly due to unlucky VSC/pit lane closure timing robbing him of the progress he’d made all race long. The Mercedes is not a race winner but it’s also still faster than most of the field.

Ocon ended up 6^th, and given he was behind his team mate Alpine will be disappointed not to have another double points result. Solid points nevertheless. Norris getting 7^th for McLaren, who looked better all weekend than in Bahrain, is a good step forward for the team provided it’s not a one-off (and the retirement of Ricciardo may dim the shine a little). Gasly got 8^th, which is certainly better than last week, with Magnussen in 9^th.

 

Leclerc retains his lead in the title race, 45 to Sainz’s 33, with Verstappen on 25. Russell is on 22, Hamilton 16, Ocon 14, and Perez/Magnussen 12.

Next up, Australia, in a fortnight. Been a while since we were there last.

 

Morris Dancer