UK: pre-race 2019

Well, I could’ve gone for Bottas and picked Leclerc. Galling to get it wrong but the hedge means, if you went that way, it should be all even.

In Q1 it was depressingly familiar for Williams, as they propped up the time sheet once again. Similarly, Stroll failed to progress. Magnussen and Kvyat joined them, perhaps a little disappointing for the Russian.

Q2 was interesting as it saw the Ferraris and Mercedes go out on mixed tyres. I believe, after later changes, the Ferraris will start on the soft, with the Mercedes going on the medium. Have to check that. The midfield was as competitive as ever, with Albon squeezing into the top 10, with (along with the predictable six), Norris and the Renaults also progressing. The two Alfas were the fastest to be eliminated, and behind them we have Sainz, Grosjean, and Perez. Mildly surprised the Spaniard didn’t do better.

So far, Leclerc had looked the man to beat, and that’s probably why the hedge got matched. Hamilton buggered up his first lap and was a quarter of a second behind Bottas, with the Ferraris inexplicably slow. On the second run, Hamilton improved but not enough, qualifying one-sixth of a second behind his team mate. Leclerc improved significantly, within a tenth of the top spot, and lines up alongside Verstappen. Given the Red Bull’s relatively better race pace, the Dutchman may very well be the chap to watch once again.

Gasly was just behind his team mate on track (although a few tenths slower) and ahead of Vettel, who was six-tenths off his team mate. Things are not going well for the German recently.

Four-tenths and one place back is Ricciardo, narrowly ahead of Norris, Albon, and Hulkenberg.

There’s a very low chance of rain for the race.

My earliest betting thoughts were:

Verstappen to win

Hamilton to win

Hamilton to lead lap 1

Verstappen is 10 to win. Each way in particular (only a third the odds top two, alas) this is tempting. He’s driving extremely well and his car was pretty close to the pace of the others in qualifying when the Red Bull suffers something of a relative loss of speed due to inferior swanky engine modes (which can’t be run throughout the race). This is worth considering.

Hamilton is 1.9 to win, shorter than Bottas. Perhaps deserves to be. After being outperformed at some earlier races this season, the Briton’s been dominant and has one hand on the title already. This is also worth looking at.

Hamilton’s 4.5 to lead lap 1. Given how often the pole-sitter has been passed this year, and Bottas has tended to have iffier starts than Hamilton, this is, again, something worth thinking about (it’s a weird problem for me to have when all three initial betting ideas seem like good ones).

Anyway, just in case anything really leapt out at me, I perused the markets. And saw this:

Special, Hamilton, Djokovic, and England all to win on Sunday, 4.33

Hamilton, enhanced win only, evens

I’m not sure how the tennis and cricket stack up, regarding both winners and timings, but it’s interesting.

On Hamilton, I was only considering him as a straight win bet, rather than each way, so the enhanced win only for 2 makes more sense to me.

I’m tipping Verstappen for the win at 10, each way (third the odds top 2). He’s driving well and the car is fast.

I also backed Hamilton to lead lap 1 at 4.5.

Anyway, enjoy the one and only free-to-air race of the season, fellow Britons. Back behind the pay wall after this.

Morris Dancer