Germany: pre-race 2019
The early Verstappen
bet came off (modestly green given it was each way). But qualifying
was remarkable for the failures more than anything else.
Ferrari were fast. But not reliable.
In Q1 both Williams
failed to progress, as did Albon and Norris, who missed out by a very
narrow margin. The big shock was that Vettel, on his out lap, noticed
a problem and had to box. It turned out his turbo had failed and the
team were unable to mend it in time, meaning he is likely to start
dead last at his home race. Especially irksome given he’s recently
made some mistakes and suffered bad luck.
In Q2 it seemed the
same type of thing might happen to Verstappen. Whilst Mercedes and
Leclerc were setting their times on the medium tyres, Verstappen had
to pit for a seeming problem to be fixed. Unlike Vettel, it was
mended and he went on to set his lap on soft tyres (with which he
shall start the race). This session was ultra close with about
two-hundredths separating 8th to 13th. Every
chap eliminated came from a different team (Giovinazzi, Magnussen,
Ricciardo, Kvyat, Stroll, from fastest to slowest).
Q3 was set to be a
Leclerc-Hamilton duel, with the Monegasque likely favourite. And, had
he set a time, maybe that would’ve been true. As it happened,
Leclerc suffered a fuel system problem and was unable to set any time
at all, meaning he’ll start 10th (unless penalties come
into play). Ferrari looked to have the fastest car this weekend, and
now they’re set to start 10th and 20th.
Hamilton duly cruised to pole, but Bottas being off the pace meant
Verstappen was able to nab 2nd. Gasly got 4th,
making it pretty tasty for Red Bull.
Behind them was
Raikkonen, just a hundredth off Gasly, and three-tenths ahead of
Grosjean. Sainz are Perez are fourth row neighbours, whilst
Hulkenberg is set to start just ahead of Leclerc.
Qualifying was quite
topsy-turvy. My initial betting thoughts based on that were:
Leclerc podium
Verstappen win
Vettel top 6
Raikkonen top 6
Leclerc is 1.5 for a
podium. Hmm. He’s a good driver and his car appears the fastest.
Essentially, this is a bet on him cutting through the midfield, which
should be relatively straightforward and then passing, Bottas, which
might not be. If it rains, we don’t know how well he’ll cope with
that. Probable, but tight odds.
Verstappen is 3.25 for
the win (3.5 for win only). Whilst credible, given Hamilton’s
apparent illness and the 50/50 chance of rain, the odds are a little
tight.
For top 6, Vettel is
1.53 and Raikkonen 2.1. The Raikkonen odds aren’t tempting as he
could be passed by Vettel and the midfield battle is very close
indeed. Vettel’s odds are more tempting but the last time a Ferrari
started from the tail end we saw a DNF (Leclerc, Monaco). Plus
there’s a serious question mark over reliability after qualifying.
Perusing the markets, a
few things looked interesting.
Perez is 8.5 to be the
winner without the big 6 (each way available at 8.5). Racing Point
have languished near the back recently but looked rather more
competitive in qualifying following an upgrade. He starts off 8th,
(or 3rd, effectively, in this particular market). Haas
have a tendency to go backwards in races, and Perez is a reliable
driver.
No Safety Car is 3.25.
There’s a roughly 50/50 chance of one appearing, and if there’s
no or little rain, this could prove good.
In all honesty, nothing
leaps out at me. But, of what’s there, I like Perez to be winner
without the big 6 (each way with a third the odds for top 2) at 8.5 (9 with boost). So
that’s the tip.
Morris Dancer
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