UK: pre-qualifying 2019

A new Silverstone deal has been struck, ensuring that the race should continue until at least 2024.

Would’ve gotten tasty odds on Gasly topping first practice. The Frenchman was half a second up on Bottas and eight-tenths ahead of Verstappen. Hamilton, Leclerc and Vettel were each separated by a tenth, with Hulkenberg half a second further back and a little way ahead of team mate Ricciardo. Albon and Sainz followed close behind.

Second practice had a more predictable fastest chap, with Bottas half a tenth up on Hamilton. Leclerc was two-tenths off the ultimate pace, and a couple of tenths ahead of Vettel. Gasly followed close behind, with Norris a tiny margin ahead of Verstappen. Sainz, Albon, and Perez were separated by fifteen-thousandths (with Kvyat, following, a further six-thousandths back).

Although third practice had some rain it dried off and slicked were back on by the end. Leclerc was fastest, less than three-hundredths ahead of Vettel and not even half a tenth ahead of Hamilton. Gasly was a couple of tenths further back but still three-tenths ahead of Verstappen (a peculiar pattern. Has the Frenchman rediscovered some form? I remain unconvinced). Bottas was next, but I can’t believe there’s really half a second between him and Hamilton. Norris was best of the rest, a few tenths ahead of the tight intra-team battle of Hulkenberg and Ricciardo, with Albon just a hundredth further back.

Incidentally, there’s a new surface on the track and it’s not clear what impact that will have on the race. We shall see.

Pre-third practice I was considering backing Bottas for fastest qualifier at 3.75. The top three are separated by less than a tenth, so picking a winner would be quite tricky. But the odds might be incorrect.

I’m somewhat tempted to back Bottas for qualifying at 6 (Betfair) and set up a hedge at 3, or to back him for fastest qualifier and race victory at 13 (Ladbrokes), as his odds will plummet to something like 2.5 if he actually does end up first on the grid. I’ve looked but the half second gap appears to be him either being slow or just cocking up a lap. Tricky.

Worth remembering that this year Ferrari have taken a third of poles, with Mercedes having two-thirds. Leclerc is available for fastest qualifier at 5.5 on Betfair, and for fastest qualifier/race winner at 12 on Ladbrokes.

I’ve decided to split one stake (so it counts as one tip) between those two Leclerc bets (set up a hedge at 2.5 and with boost the Ladrokes bet is 13). Let’s hope the winner is he, Leclerc!

Qualifying and the race, uniquely this year, are free to air in the UK, on Channel 4. Let’s hope there’s a vast yawning chasm in viewing figures compared to the pay TV audiences throughout the season, and this helps persuade F1 that pay walls are not their friend.

As has become usual, the pre-race tosh will be up tomorrow morning.

Morris Dancer