Brazil: pre-race 2018

Qualifying did indeed turn out to be a Hamilton-Vettel duel (the Briton coming out on top), but with the interesting addition that both men should face penalties. Hamilton got in Raikkonen’s way on a hot lap, and Vettel broke the weigh bridge when he failed to observe the usual procedure.

Rain was expected, contrary to the forecast, in Q1. Light rain did fall, but didn’t affect pace much. Both McLarens and Hartley failed to progress, as did Stroll. More impressively, Sirotkin squeaked into Q2, just five-thousandths ahead of Sainz, who was undone by a slight increase in rainfall.

Q2 had strategic cunning from Ferrari. As with everyone else, eager to get out before rain stole speed, they went out on the fastest tyre (supersoft, the others being soft and medium). Then they came back in to bolt on soft tyres. This went smoothly for Raikkonen but Vettel, frustrated due to the need to get out ahead of the rain, was called to the weigh bridge. He kept the engine on, contrary to usual procedure, but was beckoned onto the weigh bridge. When he drove off, he broke it. One imagines Ferrari delight at being the only top team to start on the softs (others belatedly attempted to mimic the strategy only to discover the rain meant they couldn’t exceed their original times) will be eclipsed by the probability (at the time of writing) of a hefty penalty for Vettel.

That said, Hamilton is likely to be penalised too. He got in Sirotkin’s way as the Russian prepared for a quick lap, and got in Raikkonen’s way on a hot lap. Suspect he’ll get a 3 place penalty, but Vettel might start right at the back.

Away from that, Leclerc was the only man who improved late on, as the rainfall intensified, and managed to push Magnussen (sitting in the garage) into the elimination zone. Both Force Indias also got the boot, as did Hulkenberg (Renault looking ropey this weekend), and Sirotkin.

In Q3 the expected Hamilton-Vettel duel materialised, the Briton edging his German rival. Bottas and Raikkonen, who might yet start from the front row, were not far behind, both within a tenth of Vettel. Verstappen and Ricciardo were further back, and Ricciardo will start some way down due to his grid penalty (new turbocharger, sadly incurred when a marshal extinguished a blaze and it damaged the component. Daft rule).

Ericsson and Leclerc were next, the Swede doing well to best his much praised team mate by a couple of tenths. Grosjean and Gasly round out the top 10.

The morning after qualifying I checked to see the state of play with penalties. Flabbergasted that Vettel got only a fine and reprimand, no penalty. Sirotkin, for driving ‘unnecessarily slowly’ also got just a reprimand. It seems Hamilton wasn’t investigated, let alone in receipt of a penalty. Magnussen, as per Sirotkin, got a reprimand.

Initial betting thoughts (assuming Hamilton and Vettel get penalties):

Raikkonen, win each way

Sauber, double points

Raikkonen is 13 for the win but that’s with Hamilton and Vettel starting, astoundingly, on the front row. Does start on the soft tyres, though.

Sauber are 2.25 for a double points finish. Bit tight given how competitive the midfield is.

Glancing through the markets, nothing really grabbed me. The only things of some interest were:

Magnussen, winner without the big 6 (each way), 7.5

Hamilton, not to be classified, 8

The reasoning on Magnussen is that he was fast enough to make it through, it was an error of judgement for him to be sat in the garage. He gets choice of tyre at the start of the race, and if that’s significant it’ll help a lot.

Hamilton has a fantastic finishing record. However, his engine was smoking a bit in practice due to a loose pipe. If that recurs in the race, a fire could break out, and driving a car that is on fire would be detrimental to his prospects of reaching the finishing line.

Nothing hugely grabs me, but I think Magnussen to be winner without the big 6, each way, at 7.5 is the best of what I’ve seen.

Morris Dancer