Abu Dhabi: post-race analysis 2018
An entertaining race,
though not a classic. The race bet was half-green, meaning the
weekend as a whole was red to a small extent.
Off the line, it was
formation flying for the front rows. Verstappen seemed to get off the
line well but a sensor problem that made his engine think it was
dangerously hot prevented full power deployment meant he got swamped
in the second phase of the getaway and he slipped down to 9th.
Hulkenberg and Leclerc started well, the Monegasque passing Grosjean,
and Hulkenberg doing likewise. Briefly.
In what most will see
as a racing incident (could argue the Frenchman should’ve backed
off, but it’s tight lap one racing so perhaps harsh), they bumped
and Hulkenberg’s Renault did a roll, ending up on its roof. Then it
burst into flames.
The German couldn’t
get out because of the halo (a safety feature).
Thankfully, alert
marshals were on hand to immediately extinguish the fire before it
roasted the driver, and Hulkenberg was unharmed, talking on the
radio. His car had to be flipped by marshal and medical staff back
onto its wheels so he could get out. I’ve said before the halo
could make just this situation happen, whereby a driver is trapped,
upside down, in a burning vehicle. Hulkenberg was fine, but this
needs to be taken into account for next year’s regulations. It’s
no good waiting until a man suffers burn injuries, or burns to death,
before taking action.
The safety car was
deployed. Nobody pitted as it was lap one. Notably, Leclerc was ahead
of Ricciardo, and 4th on the track. Pretty tasty.
Racing resumed, only
for Raikkonen’s Ferrari to lose all power on the straight, forcing
a virtual safety car around lap seven or so. Hamilton pitted, as did
Leclerc and Grosjean (the Frenchman was around 7th or so
at this point). Interestingly, Verstappen, on the hypersoft, stayed
out.
This bumped Leclerc and
Grosjean well down the order, and the traffic they suffered made it
plain they’d made a strategic error. Leclerc suffered slightly,
Grosjean a lot. But how would it affect Hamilton, with a far faster
car and less traffic?
On the radio, the
Briton was unconvinced by the strategy. Ahead of him, Bottas, Vettel,
Ricciardo and Verstappen were all within the pit window (they’d
emerge behind Hamilton) but would have fresher tyres come the race’s
climax. In a weird twist, rain was approaching too.
Those ahead of Hamilton
successively boxed, excepting Ricciardo. The rain came, enough to
look worrying in front of the floodlights but not sufficient to cause
any grip problems.
It seemed we’d be
heading for a classic Abu Dhabi processional finish. But Vettel was
gaining on Bottas, and Verstappen on Vettel.
Further down the field,
Grosjean passed Vandoorne, after being bottled up behind him for
ages, only for the Belgian and Ocon to both pass the Haas
immediately. Shortly after this (I think, may have the wrong driver)
Ocon passed Vandoorne. Shortly after, Ocon braked too late for a
corner and lost some time, only to, bizarrely, be given a 5s time
penalty for gaining an advantage.
At the sharp end,
Bottas was busy shredding his tyres. Vettel passed him and set about
narrowing the gap to Hamilton. Ricciardo, meanwhile, had finally
pitted, perhaps 10-15 laps after everyone else, and was chasing down
Verstappen.
Verstappen closed on
Bottas and was going to nail the Finn when Bottas locked up, missed a
corner and took a shortcut across runoff. He didn’t receive a
penalty. Dying tyres meant Verstappen got past a lap or two later,
and Bottas pitted again.
Alonso was 11th,
and trying to nab a final point. He locked up at the same corner as
Bottas. He took the same runoff shortcut. Nobody was immediately
ahead of or behind him. And he got a 5s time penalty. I’m glad the
decisions taken today didn’t really affect anything much, because
they were inconsistent and ineffable.
Sainz, meanwhile, was
running best of the rest. He hadn’t pitted when Leclerc and
Grosjean had, and waited too when others like Magnussen and Ericsson
(who retired with a reliability failure, as did Gasly and Ocon) came
in. The late strategy, avoiding traffic, paid off and he emerged
ahead of Leclerc, who was 4th in the early stages.
Things were closing up
nicely at the sharp end… and then they weren’t. Vettel couldn’t
get near enough Hamilton. The top two eased away from the chasing Red
Bull pair. Bottas was in a lonely 5th. The closest late
on-track battle was Perez trying to hunt down Leclerc (on very old
tyres) but the talented Monegasque managed to keep his place.
Hamilton, Vettel and
Verstappen were the podium chaps. Ricciardo just missed out, followed
by Bottas. Sainz’s 6th makes it a mixed day for Renault.
Likewise Leclerc’s 7th for Sauber. Perez’s 8th
means Force India kept Sauber at bay in the Constructors’. Grosjean
and Magnussen ended up 9th and 10th.
Alonso and Hartley,
both seemingly at their last race, were 11th and 12th.
Vandoorne and Sirotkin, likewise, were 14th and 15th.
Ocon, who will probably return, and Ericsson, who may not, both
failed to finish due to reliability letting them down.
And so endeth the 2018
season.
Drivers’:
Hamilton 408
Vettel 320
Raikkonen 251
Verstappen 249
Bottas 247
Ricciardo 170
It looked comfortable
for Hamilton in the end. A string of failures let down Vettel and
Hamilton’s relentless consistency saw the Mercedes’ winning
machine notch up another pair of titles. In the battle for 3rd,
both Raikkonen and Verstappen had four DNFs apiece, most of
Verstappen’s being self-inflicted in an unimpressive start to the
season [though he’s driven fantastically in the last third] and
most of Raikkonen’s not being his fault. More telling is Bottas. He
had just two DNFs, yet finished third of that little group.
Ricciardo’s points-per-finish is slightly lower than
Raikkonen/Verstappen (about 13 versus about 14) but his eight DNFs,
almost all down to car failures, really did take him out of the
running.
Drivers’, best of the
rest:
Hulkenberg 69
Perez 62
Magnussen 56
Sainz 53
Alonso 50
Ocon 49
Pretty tight.
Hulkenberg and Alonso had 7 DNFs apiece, just one fewer than
Ricciardo, Ocon had 5 and Perez, Magnussen and Sainz each had just 2.
That makes Hulkenberg’s margin of victory all the more impressive.
Him and Ricciardo should be a tasty pairing next year for Renault.
Remains to be seen if their car will be good enough.
Constructors’:
Mercedes 655
Ferrari 571
Red Bull 419
Renault 122
Haas 93
McLaren 62
Force India 52
Sauber 48
Toro Rosso 33
Williams 7
Pretty distinct for the
top three. Renault did well for 4th, though it’s worth
remembering Force India had the points (for drivers) be on 119, so it
would’ve been very close had the Pink Panthers not been stripped of
their pre-takeover points tally. Haas on 93 isn’t bad but they
could’ve and should’ve had more. Easy to forget now but they,
particularly Grosjean, had a poor start to the season when their car
was pretty good, epitomised by the irksome double pit stop failure in
Australia.
McLaren’s 62 was
almost entirely earnt in the first half of the season, indicating
very poor development (in stark contrast to a team like Red Bull or
Force India). Lucky for them Force India had a double DNF recently,
but the extra money is sorely needed at the once mighty team. Sauber
came damned close to passing Force India. They lose Leclerc but gain
Raikkonen next year, whose experience and technical expertise may
help them develop. Toro Rosso’s 33 was, like McLaren, almost
entirely delivered in the first half of the year. Some of that will
be down to going through engines like a shore leave sailor visiting a
brothel, in order to develop the Honda engine for Red Bull next year.
Williams on 7 is a
little sad. It’s not so long ago (2014?) they had something of a
revival with Bottas and Massa, but since then they’ve slumped down
the order. Let’s hope next year they’re more competitive.
Next year, the
regulations will be fiddled with to try and simplify things a little
and increase overtaking. The rumour mill consensus is it won’t make
a huge difference. A bigger set of rule changes will come into force
in 2021, so the tight midfield might shuffle a bit in 2019, and Red
Bull might close up, but expect the same two tier racing we had this
year. Intrigued to see how much, if at all, Renault can narrow the
gap to the top chaps.
This is also the last
season of free-to-air coverage in the UK, excepting the British Grand
Prix. Since the BBC did a deal with Sky, coverage was ‘shared’
(half free-to-air, and every race on pay TV), which continued under
Channel 4. Now all save one race will be going to Sky. In a world of
social media, where it can be easy to stumble across spoilers unless
you impose a total blackout until you’ve seen the highlights, this
will, I fear, see audiences plummet.
Got a few plans for
post-season and inter-season rambles, such as the usual season review and a few
other ideas, and maybe even some articles that don’t mention
betting at all.
For the record, the
only bets I’ve made have been small ones, each way, on Gasly for
the 2019 title (fifth the odds top 3) at 34, most recently. Imagine a
Red Bull with half the power deficit and better reliability, and
consider how it would’ve done this year. That’s my reasoning.
We’ll see if it comes off.
Morris Dancer
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