Abu Dhabi: post-race analysis 2018


An entertaining race, though not a classic. The race bet was half-green, meaning the weekend as a whole was red to a small extent.

Off the line, it was formation flying for the front rows. Verstappen seemed to get off the line well but a sensor problem that made his engine think it was dangerously hot prevented full power deployment meant he got swamped in the second phase of the getaway and he slipped down to 9th. Hulkenberg and Leclerc started well, the Monegasque passing Grosjean, and Hulkenberg doing likewise. Briefly.

In what most will see as a racing incident (could argue the Frenchman should’ve backed off, but it’s tight lap one racing so perhaps harsh), they bumped and Hulkenberg’s Renault did a roll, ending up on its roof. Then it burst into flames.

The German couldn’t get out because of the halo (a safety feature).

Thankfully, alert marshals were on hand to immediately extinguish the fire before it roasted the driver, and Hulkenberg was unharmed, talking on the radio. His car had to be flipped by marshal and medical staff back onto its wheels so he could get out. I’ve said before the halo could make just this situation happen, whereby a driver is trapped, upside down, in a burning vehicle. Hulkenberg was fine, but this needs to be taken into account for next year’s regulations. It’s no good waiting until a man suffers burn injuries, or burns to death, before taking action.

The safety car was deployed. Nobody pitted as it was lap one. Notably, Leclerc was ahead of Ricciardo, and 4th on the track. Pretty tasty.

Racing resumed, only for Raikkonen’s Ferrari to lose all power on the straight, forcing a virtual safety car around lap seven or so. Hamilton pitted, as did Leclerc and Grosjean (the Frenchman was around 7th or so at this point). Interestingly, Verstappen, on the hypersoft, stayed out.

This bumped Leclerc and Grosjean well down the order, and the traffic they suffered made it plain they’d made a strategic error. Leclerc suffered slightly, Grosjean a lot. But how would it affect Hamilton, with a far faster car and less traffic?

On the radio, the Briton was unconvinced by the strategy. Ahead of him, Bottas, Vettel, Ricciardo and Verstappen were all within the pit window (they’d emerge behind Hamilton) but would have fresher tyres come the race’s climax. In a weird twist, rain was approaching too.

Those ahead of Hamilton successively boxed, excepting Ricciardo. The rain came, enough to look worrying in front of the floodlights but not sufficient to cause any grip problems.

It seemed we’d be heading for a classic Abu Dhabi processional finish. But Vettel was gaining on Bottas, and Verstappen on Vettel.

Further down the field, Grosjean passed Vandoorne, after being bottled up behind him for ages, only for the Belgian and Ocon to both pass the Haas immediately. Shortly after this (I think, may have the wrong driver) Ocon passed Vandoorne. Shortly after, Ocon braked too late for a corner and lost some time, only to, bizarrely, be given a 5s time penalty for gaining an advantage.

At the sharp end, Bottas was busy shredding his tyres. Vettel passed him and set about narrowing the gap to Hamilton. Ricciardo, meanwhile, had finally pitted, perhaps 10-15 laps after everyone else, and was chasing down Verstappen.

Verstappen closed on Bottas and was going to nail the Finn when Bottas locked up, missed a corner and took a shortcut across runoff. He didn’t receive a penalty. Dying tyres meant Verstappen got past a lap or two later, and Bottas pitted again.

Alonso was 11th, and trying to nab a final point. He locked up at the same corner as Bottas. He took the same runoff shortcut. Nobody was immediately ahead of or behind him. And he got a 5s time penalty. I’m glad the decisions taken today didn’t really affect anything much, because they were inconsistent and ineffable.

Sainz, meanwhile, was running best of the rest. He hadn’t pitted when Leclerc and Grosjean had, and waited too when others like Magnussen and Ericsson (who retired with a reliability failure, as did Gasly and Ocon) came in. The late strategy, avoiding traffic, paid off and he emerged ahead of Leclerc, who was 4th in the early stages.

Things were closing up nicely at the sharp end… and then they weren’t. Vettel couldn’t get near enough Hamilton. The top two eased away from the chasing Red Bull pair. Bottas was in a lonely 5th. The closest late on-track battle was Perez trying to hunt down Leclerc (on very old tyres) but the talented Monegasque managed to keep his place.

Hamilton, Vettel and Verstappen were the podium chaps. Ricciardo just missed out, followed by Bottas. Sainz’s 6th makes it a mixed day for Renault. Likewise Leclerc’s 7th for Sauber. Perez’s 8th means Force India kept Sauber at bay in the Constructors’. Grosjean and Magnussen ended up 9th and 10th.

Alonso and Hartley, both seemingly at their last race, were 11th and 12th. Vandoorne and Sirotkin, likewise, were 14th and 15th. Ocon, who will probably return, and Ericsson, who may not, both failed to finish due to reliability letting them down.

And so endeth the 2018 season.

Drivers’:
Hamilton 408
Vettel 320
Raikkonen 251
Verstappen 249
Bottas 247
Ricciardo 170

It looked comfortable for Hamilton in the end. A string of failures let down Vettel and Hamilton’s relentless consistency saw the Mercedes’ winning machine notch up another pair of titles. In the battle for 3rd, both Raikkonen and Verstappen had four DNFs apiece, most of Verstappen’s being self-inflicted in an unimpressive start to the season [though he’s driven fantastically in the last third] and most of Raikkonen’s not being his fault. More telling is Bottas. He had just two DNFs, yet finished third of that little group. Ricciardo’s points-per-finish is slightly lower than Raikkonen/Verstappen (about 13 versus about 14) but his eight DNFs, almost all down to car failures, really did take him out of the running.

Drivers’, best of the rest:
Hulkenberg 69
Perez 62
Magnussen 56
Sainz 53
Alonso 50
Ocon 49

Pretty tight. Hulkenberg and Alonso had 7 DNFs apiece, just one fewer than Ricciardo, Ocon had 5 and Perez, Magnussen and Sainz each had just 2. That makes Hulkenberg’s margin of victory all the more impressive. Him and Ricciardo should be a tasty pairing next year for Renault. Remains to be seen if their car will be good enough.

Constructors’:
Mercedes 655
Ferrari 571
Red Bull 419
Renault 122
Haas 93
McLaren 62
Force India 52
Sauber 48
Toro Rosso 33
Williams 7

Pretty distinct for the top three. Renault did well for 4th, though it’s worth remembering Force India had the points (for drivers) be on 119, so it would’ve been very close had the Pink Panthers not been stripped of their pre-takeover points tally. Haas on 93 isn’t bad but they could’ve and should’ve had more. Easy to forget now but they, particularly Grosjean, had a poor start to the season when their car was pretty good, epitomised by the irksome double pit stop failure in Australia.

McLaren’s 62 was almost entirely earnt in the first half of the season, indicating very poor development (in stark contrast to a team like Red Bull or Force India). Lucky for them Force India had a double DNF recently, but the extra money is sorely needed at the once mighty team. Sauber came damned close to passing Force India. They lose Leclerc but gain Raikkonen next year, whose experience and technical expertise may help them develop. Toro Rosso’s 33 was, like McLaren, almost entirely delivered in the first half of the year. Some of that will be down to going through engines like a shore leave sailor visiting a brothel, in order to develop the Honda engine for Red Bull next year.

Williams on 7 is a little sad. It’s not so long ago (2014?) they had something of a revival with Bottas and Massa, but since then they’ve slumped down the order. Let’s hope next year they’re more competitive.

Next year, the regulations will be fiddled with to try and simplify things a little and increase overtaking. The rumour mill consensus is it won’t make a huge difference. A bigger set of rule changes will come into force in 2021, so the tight midfield might shuffle a bit in 2019, and Red Bull might close up, but expect the same two tier racing we had this year. Intrigued to see how much, if at all, Renault can narrow the gap to the top chaps.

This is also the last season of free-to-air coverage in the UK, excepting the British Grand Prix. Since the BBC did a deal with Sky, coverage was ‘shared’ (half free-to-air, and every race on pay TV), which continued under Channel 4. Now all save one race will be going to Sky. In a world of social media, where it can be easy to stumble across spoilers unless you impose a total blackout until you’ve seen the highlights, this will, I fear, see audiences plummet.

Got a few plans for post-season and inter-season rambles, such as the usual season review and a few other ideas, and maybe even some articles that don’t mention betting at all.

For the record, the only bets I’ve made have been small ones, each way, on Gasly for the 2019 title (fifth the odds top 3) at 34, most recently. Imagine a Red Bull with half the power deficit and better reliability, and consider how it would’ve done this year. That’s my reasoning. We’ll see if it comes off.

Morris Dancer

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