Abu Dhabi: pre-qualifying 2018
Interesting little stat
I noticed. Hulkenberg, likely to win best of the rest, has 6 DNFs to
Sainz's 2. The Spaniard only has one more points finish, and trails
his team mate by 45 points to 69.
Hulkenberg will likely
have stern competition from Ricciardo next year, but that's a very
impressive performance against Sainz. When it comes to post-season
analysis, I’m likely going to split it between the top 6 and the
rest, as that seems a more sensible way of assessing things.
It appears that
Mercedes at least now has a super party mode which is for qualifying
only. That increases the divergence between qualifying and race
performance and may explain why the Red Bull has been so competitive
in races compared to qualifying recently.
Off-track news: Kubica
has been signed up for Williams as a race driver next year. It’ll
be eight years since he last drove, and he needs to drive about 70%
left-handed due to weakness in his right hand. I hope the Pole does
well. Reaction has been mixed with some wishing younger drivers, most
notably Ocon, could have a seat, and many pleased to see such an
unlikely return.
In first practice,
Verstappen topped the times by quite a margin, nearly half a second
ahead of Ricciardo. Bottas and Hamilton were about a second off the
ultimate pace, followed by Ocon and Magnussen. Raikkonen and Vettel
came next, with Sainz and Grosjean rounding out the top 10.
Second practice had
Bottas fastest, half a tenth ahead of Verstappen. Ricciardo,
Hamilton, Raikkonen, and Vettel were all covered by a tenth and a
half. Grosjean was best of the rest, ahead of Hulkenberg, Magnussen
and Ocon.
In third practice
Hamilton was the quickest, a few tenths ahead of Raikkonen, who edged
out Vettel by a tenth. Verstappen was about the same margin back,
ahead of Bottas (unsure if that was ragged from the Finn or
indicative of real pace). Ricciardo was sixth but didn’t get in a
proper hot lap as, astoundingly, his car ran out of power. Grosjean
was best of the rest, half a second ahead of Hulkenberg. Sainz and
Ocon followed close behind.
Right now it seems like
it’ll probably be tight at the top. Hamilton’s likeliest to get
pole, but it’ll be interesting to see how things go. Also worth
noting the hypersoft is markedly faster than the ultrasoft but also
crumbly. If anyone can reach Q3 on the purples that’ll come in
handy for the race.
I backed Raikkonen
between second and third practice for pole, each way at 21 (23 with
boost), setting up a hedge at 3 on the Ladbrokes Exchange. Given the
third practice times, I’m very surprised his odds are joint longest
of the top 6 (with Ricciardo) at 17.
I think that’s still
worth backing.
Raikkonen, ‘win’
qualifying each way (third the odds top two), at 17. I set up a hedge
on the Ladbrokes Exchange at 3.
Hopefully, the Ferrari
Finn will be flying in qualifying.
Morris Dancer
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