Abu Dhabi: pre-qualifying 2018


Interesting little stat I noticed. Hulkenberg, likely to win best of the rest, has 6 DNFs to Sainz's 2. The Spaniard only has one more points finish, and trails his team mate by 45 points to 69.

Hulkenberg will likely have stern competition from Ricciardo next year, but that's a very impressive performance against Sainz. When it comes to post-season analysis, I’m likely going to split it between the top 6 and the rest, as that seems a more sensible way of assessing things.

It appears that Mercedes at least now has a super party mode which is for qualifying only. That increases the divergence between qualifying and race performance and may explain why the Red Bull has been so competitive in races compared to qualifying recently.

Off-track news: Kubica has been signed up for Williams as a race driver next year. It’ll be eight years since he last drove, and he needs to drive about 70% left-handed due to weakness in his right hand. I hope the Pole does well. Reaction has been mixed with some wishing younger drivers, most notably Ocon, could have a seat, and many pleased to see such an unlikely return.

In first practice, Verstappen topped the times by quite a margin, nearly half a second ahead of Ricciardo. Bottas and Hamilton were about a second off the ultimate pace, followed by Ocon and Magnussen. Raikkonen and Vettel came next, with Sainz and Grosjean rounding out the top 10.

Second practice had Bottas fastest, half a tenth ahead of Verstappen. Ricciardo, Hamilton, Raikkonen, and Vettel were all covered by a tenth and a half. Grosjean was best of the rest, ahead of Hulkenberg, Magnussen and Ocon.

In third practice Hamilton was the quickest, a few tenths ahead of Raikkonen, who edged out Vettel by a tenth. Verstappen was about the same margin back, ahead of Bottas (unsure if that was ragged from the Finn or indicative of real pace). Ricciardo was sixth but didn’t get in a proper hot lap as, astoundingly, his car ran out of power. Grosjean was best of the rest, half a second ahead of Hulkenberg. Sainz and Ocon followed close behind.

Right now it seems like it’ll probably be tight at the top. Hamilton’s likeliest to get pole, but it’ll be interesting to see how things go. Also worth noting the hypersoft is markedly faster than the ultrasoft but also crumbly. If anyone can reach Q3 on the purples that’ll come in handy for the race.

I backed Raikkonen between second and third practice for pole, each way at 21 (23 with boost), setting up a hedge at 3 on the Ladbrokes Exchange. Given the third practice times, I’m very surprised his odds are joint longest of the top 6 (with Ricciardo) at 17.

I think that’s still worth backing.

Raikkonen, ‘win’ qualifying each way (third the odds top two), at 17. I set up a hedge on the Ladbrokes Exchange at 3.

Hopefully, the Ferrari Finn will be flying in qualifying.

Morris Dancer

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