Singapore: pre-race
Qualifying was really
rather enthralling, and produced a grid that might just tilt the
title. Contrary to my expectations after Q2, Vettel produced a pair
of stunning laps to grab pole position. Even better for him, he had
both Red Bulls and his team mate ahead of Hamilton.
No surprise that the
Saubers were slowest in qualifying, and Williams had an
unsurprisingly poor day, also exiting at the first opportunity.
Magnussen was the fastest of those departing in Q1.
In Q2, both Force
Indias failed to progress. Grosjean was slowest, with Palmer the
fastest not to advance and Kvyat middle of the pack.
At this stage, I
thought a Red Bull front row was looking quite likely, and Hamilton
was looking roughly on par with Vettel. However, the German had other
ideas and stuck his Ferrari on pole (fastest on the first run and
then improved on the second to extend his advantage). Verstappen and
Ricciardo were very close and lined up behind, with Raikkonen 4th.
So Hamilton starts only 5th, some way off his title rival.
Bottas was 6th, with Hulkenberg doing well to beat both
McLarens.
Alonso and Vandoorne
start 8th and 9th (their pace is good but a
question mark must remain over their reliability), and Sainz wasn’t
able to rise higher than 10th.
That’s a tasty grid
for the title fight.
The weather forecast
during the day is for heavy rain showers, although it should be clear
at night. It’s worth noting we’ve never had a wet race at this
circuit so it’s unclear how good or bad drainage is, how much
standing water there would be, and how bad the floodlights on water
would be for drivers.
My initial betting
thoughts were roughly:
Ferrari top score [if
this market is up...]
Hulkenberg top 6
Sadly, the top score
market was missing from Ladbrokes again. A shame, as I rather liked
it.
Hulkenberg is just 2.37
to be top 6. I think he has a good chance but that’s a bit tight as
it essentially relies upon helpful safety car timing or a breakdown
ahead.
At this stage I’m
rather regretting not backing the Ladbrokes Exchange Special of a
double Red Bull podium at 5, but that ship has sailed…
Anyway, having
exhausted my rather small list of initial thoughts, I perused the
markets and found:
Vettel win *and*
Hamilton not to get a podium, 2.4, Betfair Sportsbook
Ricciardo podium *and*
Kvyat, Palmer, Verstappen all not classified, 67, Betfair Sportsbook
Verstappen, not to be
classified, 4, Ladbrokes
Verstappen/Ricciardo,
to lead lap 1, 5/14, Betfair Exchange
A fair spread of bets.
One advantage to having little time yesterday was seeing the
#Oddsonthat market on Betfair Sportsbook, which I don’t think is up
when I bet on Saturday evenings.
Vettel has a great
record of converting poles to victories and the Singapore Grand Prix
is historically won (about 7/9 or suchlike) from pole. I also think
Hamilton will struggle to get a podium given he’s got fast Red
Bulls and Raikkonen ahead of him. However, and it’s a big however,
the Red Bulls are very tasty and that doesn’t make this a dead cert
for Vettel by any stretch. I do think this is a better bet than just
backing him for the win at 1.6 or suchlike, though.
Palmer has a 5/13 DNF
rate [38%], Kvyat has 4 DNFs [31%], Verstappen has 6 [46%]. The odds
on all having a DNF, just based on past figures (which are not
necessarily a guide to the future), is about 5.5%, about one in 18.
For the bet to come off, Ricciardo also needs a podium. He’d be
helped by Verstappen failing, but does have a 3/13 DNF rate himself.
That’s still a 4.1% chance, about one in 24. Although it’s risky,
the numbers do actually stack up.
The Verstappen not to
be classified bet is pretty straightforward. He has an almost 50%
chance of not being classified, but odds of 4.
The Ferraris have been
somewhat tardy off the line relative to their immediate rivals at
some races. Not far to the first corner, but the Red Bulls will be
hungry for the lead. Quite difficult to guess whether such a bet is
worthwhile or not.
Processional races
(Singapore, Monaco etc) can be difficult to bet on. In this case,
I’ve decided to back Verstappen not to be classified at 4, and the
slightly unexpected Ricciardo podium and Kvyat, Palmer and Verstappen
not to be classified bet at 67. [As usual with my records I’ll note
the theoretical P&L for £10 stakes, but in reality I’ll be
putting less on the latter bet, not least because my Betfair account
is anaemic these days].
Two tips:
Verstappen, not to be
classified, 4 (Ladbrokes)
Ricciardo to get a
podium, Verstappen, Kvyat and Palmer not to be classified, 67
(Betfair Sportsbook)
Let’s hope Ricciardo
wins and there are at least three early retirements. This race could be very
significant for the title.
Morris Dancer
Interesting selections, Mr Dancer. Unfortunately I'm too busy today to watch the race so I'm just going to have to call in blind later on to pick up my winnings :)
ReplyDeleteI can't see past Vettel for the win. I will follow you in for Ricciardo podium but I like the way Bottas is driving right now and I'm going podium there as well.
Vandoorne should be solid for points, I think. Fastest lap will probably be decided on the last one to pit but I'm going for Kimi at 16/1.
Your Verstappen tip looks logical - cheers. In fact I'll take all three of your DNF because I'll kick myself if you call it right and they don't come in.
I think McLaren is solid for points, on pace. But there remains a substantial question mark on reliability.
ReplyDeleteFastest lap is tricky because free air is needed and the circuit can be quite congested. Raikkonen does rack them up, though.
To clarify, the Sportsbook bet is a single bet with four contingencies (Ricciardo podium + Verstappen, Kvyat, Palmer all not classified). Unlikely, of course, but I think the odds are off-kilter.
A round of applause from both of us, although Bottas podium 6/1 has bought us dinner out tonight :)
ReplyDeleteMy full betting breakdown to follow a bit later but today is greener than a green thing in the Yorkshire countryside just after the Spring rain.
Sorry, I meant to type "for" rather than "from" both of us.
ReplyDeleteSome nice bread and butter money in your DNF suggestions.