Italy: pre-race 2017
Both Renaults also have
penalties (along with the Red Bulls, Alonso and Sainz).
After initially going
out in wet conditions, and kudos to the decision-makers for not
taking the easy option of delaying, the first session of qualifying
was red-flagged after Grosjean crashed, and we endured about two and
a half hours of delay.
In the latter part of
Q1 Raikkonen was released in an unsafe manner, almost hitting Perez,
so he may get a penalty for that. Magnussen, Palmer, Ericsson,
Wehrlein and the crashed Grosjean left at this stage.
In Q2 cars went out on
a mix of intermediates and wets. Perez was the fastest to be
eliminated, followed by Hulkenberg, Alonso, Kvyat, and Sainz. Stroll
and Vandoorne both were impressive, and reached Q3 (Stroll being
fifth fastest in Q2).
Rain intensified in Q3,
and again a mix of full wets and intermediates were used. Hamilton,
Bottas and Vettel went for intermediates. Everyone else went full
wet. Those three soon regretted it and immediately switched for the
full wets. A critical mistake? Not for the Silver Arrows, but the
Ferraris were bizarrely slow (having been competitive in previous
sessions with slightly lighter rain).
Hamilton hos his 69th
pole (a new record) ahead of Verstappen and Ricciardo. Stroll and
Ocon were next up, having done absolutely fantastic jobs in the wet
(I’m very surprised the Williams was so good in the wet). Bottas
and Raikkonen were next, and Vettel, who had looked competitive
earlier, could only manage 8th. Massa and Vandoorne round
out the top 10.
Remember, both
Renaults, both Red Bulls, Alonso and Sainz all have hefty grid
penalties. So, Stroll and Ocon will start 2nd and 3rd.
Tomorrow is meant to be
dry. With that in mind, bets that seemed worth a look included:
Williams to double
score
Perez top 6
Vettel podium
Williams are 3.5 to
double score. They’ll be starting 2nd and 7th,
with a DNF rate of just under 33% (7/24). Worth considering.
Weirdly, despite
waiting quite some time, there was no top 6 market on Ladbrokes. On
Betfair, Perez had odds of just 2.14, and 3 on Betfair Sportsbook.
Hmm. Not quite long enough, probably about right.
Vettel is just 1.33 for
a podium. He starts 6th. Whilst it’s likely, it’s a
bit too short to tempt.
In time-honoured
tradition I embarked upon a general perusal to see what else leapt
out, if anything.
Ocon, lead lap 1, 15
(Betfair Sportsbook)
Stroll, lead lap 1, 11
(Ladbrokes)
Ocon, podium, 12
(Betfair Sportsbook)
Verstappen, not to be
classified, 3.25 (Betfair Sportsbook)
Ocon has a very good
starting record. It’s not long to turn 1, but I could see him
making up ground. Stroll’s a little harder to assess, but the odds
are quite long for cars starting 2nd and 3rd,
and both are quick in a straight line. However, Hamilton has been
starting well all year.
Bottas starts 4th
and seems nigh on certain to acquire a podium, Vettel starts 6th.
In races so far the Force India has been better than the Williams (it
wasn’t in the wet, it must be said, but a dry track is a different
animal). Also, the Force India is very reliable, with only the
organic component in the cockpit proving occasionally unstable. Could
Ocon hold off Vettel? A one-stop seems likely, offering a single
undercut possibility if the deed can’t be done on track.
Verstappen has a 50%
DNF rate. However, it’s worth noting this is all car reliability,
he hasn’t been screwing up. But he’ll also start well down the
field, increasing the chances of getting caught in lap 1 carnage.
Looking at all the bets
above, the ones that appeal most are Williams to double score (they
start 2nd and 7th) at 3.5, and Verstappen not
to be classified at 3.25 [NB this was an early tip].
No rain is expected for
the race, apparently. But the forecast for qualifying and practice
was wrong a few days away, so take with a pinch of salt.
The bet that I like
most is Williams to double score. Looking at Q2 (least wet session)
and the first two practices, I think they have the pace to retain
points.
Tip: Williams, double
score, 3.5 (Ladbrokes).
Let’s hope the race
is entertaining and profitable. And on time.
Morris Dancer
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