Italy: pre-qualifying 2017
I offered, somewhat
tentatively given every bet I’ve offered recently has either been
ill-judged or damned by the gods, three early tips. These were
Verstappen not to be classified at 3.25 (Betfair Sportsbook), and
Bottas to ‘win’ qualifying at 6 each way, and to ‘win’ FP1 at
7.5 each way (the latter two are both Ladbrokes). My reasoning was
pretty straightforward. For Verstappen, he has a 50% DNF rate. For
Bottas, I believe (although others disagree) that Monza should be
great for Mercedes. It’s clearly the best car in a straight line,
and Monza is mostly straight lines.
Alonso has a 35 place
grid penalty, at the time of writing. Both Red Bull drivers also have
substantial penalties. I wonder if a Force India on the podium is a
worthwhile bet... certainly to be top 6 is worth a look. Sainz also
has a 10 place grid penalty.
Elsewhere, Mr. B wisely
suggested that Alonso’s penalties are due to prioritising
Singapore, and Red Bull might be doing something similar.
The result of first
practice, which was curtailed by rain, was Hamilton fastest, then
Bottas and Vettel, with hefty chunks of time between them. Raikkonen
was next up, then Ricciardo and Verstappen. BFFs Perez and Ocon
followed, then Vandoorne and Massa.
Second practice had
Bottas a tiny bit faster than Hamilton, with Vettel very close behind
and Raikkonen next up. Verstappen was over half a second back, and
followed by Ricciardo, Vandoorne, Alonso, Ocon and Massa.
Third practice was
delayed by 44 minutes due to rain. When the curtailed session finally
started everybody went out on wet tyres, although most only did
installation laps. For what it’s worth, Massa and Stroll were
fastest, then came Hulkenberg, Sainz, Palmer, Ericsson, Kvyat,
Ricciardo, Verstappen and Vettel.
With rain possible, I’m
not tempted by the idea of a bet on qualifying. Could be
entertaining, and highly unpredictable.
Morris Dancer
Comments
Post a Comment