Singapore: pre-qualifying
NB articles may be more
concise or released at odd times this race weekend, and next, because
I’m pressed for time.
Singapore’s a tedious
processional low-speed street circuit. Nice for Red Bull, bad for
Williams, engine grunt matters far less here than at the last couple
of tracks.
As you would expect,
tyres are soft and supersoft. Rain is forecast for both Saturday and
Sunday, but too early to affect either qualifying or the race,
although paying attention to that is clearly wise.
Off-track, Volkswagen
may buy Red Bull. The team has indicated they’ll scweam and scweam
and quit the sport if they don’t have a competitive engine next
year. Unsure what’ll happen to Toro Rosso [under the VW deal, Red
Bull would use a VW engine, though it’s unclear whether that’d be
from day one or if they’d use Ferrari engines in the intervening
period].
Rosberg was fastest in
P1, four-tenths up on Hamilton, unsurprisingly. Ricciardo was less
than a tenth back, followed by Vettel, Raikkonen and Bottas.
Verstappen came next, with Hulkenberg, Sainz and Maldonado rounding
out the top 10.
Quite surprisingly,
Kvyat was fastest in P2, less than a tenth ahead of Raikkonen.
Ricciardo was less than a tenth further back, followed by Hamilton
(one gets the feeling Mercedes weren’t really trying). Vettel and
Perez were next, with Rosberg only 7th. Alonso,
Hulkenberg and Verstappen finish off the top 10.
Somewhat surprisingly,
Eddie Jordan (speaking on Inside F1) suggested Mercedes were
‘floundering’. I still think they’ll get pole but it might be
rather tighter than I’d anticipated.
The increase in speed
from supersoft to soft appears to be less for Mercedes than Ferrari
and Red Bull (which has implications not only for qualifying but also
for the race). Also highly likely there’s some Silver Arrow
sandbagging, so how real the gap is remains open to question.
In P3 Vettel was half a
second ahead of his team mate, with Raikkonen less than a tenth ahead
of Kvyat. Ricciardo was two-tenths further back, with Hamilton nearly
half a second down the road. Rosberg was four-tenths down on his team
mate and less than a tenth ahead of Alonso. Sainz, Verstappen and
Ericsson followed close behind.
However, it’s worth
noting Vettel was fastest in P3 ahead of Monaco qualifying by a large
distance, and still failed to get pole. On the other hand, the
Ferrari engine appears to have a better qualifying mode now than
then, and the time gap in P3 was even larger than in Monaco.
Bets for qualifying
that spring to mind:
Vettel pole
Alonso Q3
Red Bull top score [for
the race]
Verstappen Q3
Raikkonen top 3
[qualifying]
Kvyat top 3
[qualifying]
Vettel was just 2.6 for
pole, which is mean given Mercedes has had every pole since Austria
last year. Weirdly, Hamilton was all the way out to 3. Hmm.
Kvyat being 3.35 for
top 3 is interesting. Raikkonen at 2.6 for the same market is too
short.
Alonso evens for Q3 is
too short to tempt. Verstappen at 1.5 is even less alluring.
On consideration, I’ve
gone for two bets (both Betfair):
Vettel, pole, 2.56 (hedged 1.1)
Vettel, pole, 2.56 (hedged 1.1)
Hamilton, pole, 3.55
(hedged 1.1)
In my view, only one of
those two are likely to take pole. The bet and short odds hedging
should mean if either do, qualifying will be green, and if form
varies wildly from Q2 to Q3, which is possible, then it could improve
things.
As an aside, Maldonado
is 1.83 not to be classified.
Morris Dancer
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