Japan: post-race analysis
Not a classic, either
as spectacle or bet. The bet narrowly failed, making it two red
results this weekend. It’s particularly disappointing as both were
very close, but losing’s losing whether it’s by an inch or a
mile.
GeoffM’s bets (posted
on previous article) were sound, excepting the Massa bet. Good spot
on Sainz for points, which I would not have backed [being honest].
Off the start, Rosberg
cocked up and slipped back to 4th. The rest of the top
five flew in formation, but the Lotuses and Hulkenberg had decent
starts. There was woe further back, with a tiny collision [so small
it was barely perceptible] between Ricciardo and Massa giving both
punctures on the starting straight, and put them both a minute and a
half back by the time they trundled into the pits.
Perez also got a
puncture on lap one, but later in the lap, and he lost 40-50s or so.
Gaps opened up, except
between Bottas and Rosberg. The German closed on the Finn but was
unable to pass and eventually dropped back a little due to some
overheating. At the time, things were looking good, with Bottas 3rd,
Rosberg 4th and Raikkonen 4s off his compatriot in 5th.
I should’ve had a hedge on the bet, and suspect it would’ve paid
off here.
Hamilton sailed around
the track. It was rather dull at the sharp end. Nobody challenged him
in any way. Rosberg got past first Bottas and then Vettel, because
the Mercedes advantage, having vanished last week, has returned to
ridiculously enormous (and, unlike last season, there’s no duel
between team mates).
In the middle stint
Bottas was on the medium tyre and Raikkonen on the hard, yet the
latter seemed faster. This may have been due to higher temperatures
favouring the otherwise slower hard compound. Lap after lap,
Raikkonen was within a second, but Bottas drove calmly to stay ahead.
Until Raikkonen pitted. He emerged right behind the two Lotuses
(Loti?). Williams immediately reacted, pitting Bottas, who came out
behind both Loti, and Raikkonen.
The top five were
Hamilton, Rosberg, Vettel, Raikkonen and Bottas. Hulkenberg had a
very good finish in 6th (having started 13th)
and the Lotuses, Grosjean leading Maldonado, secured a double points
finish, which was good to see. Toro Rosso also had a lovely day, with
Verstappen and Sainz rounding out the top 10.
Alonso just missed out
in 11th (and complained on the radio of having a GP2
engine), and Perez recovered pretty well from his early puncture to
end up 12th.
So, not a classic. Bet
may have been green if I’d hedged, which is something to remember.
The result means
Williams consolidate their 3rd position in the
Constructors’, having recently lost ground to Red Bull. Lotus
closed the gap to Force India (who hold 5th), but
Hulkenberg’s strong finish mitigates that damage. Toro Rosso look
highly likely to get 7th now.
The 17 point gap from
Force India back to Lotus is the only gap I think might be closed. Sauber have a 9 point lead over McLaren, and seem likely
to remain ahead. McLaren’s tribulations present an opportunity for much
needed Constructors’ cash for the Sauber team.
Hamilton has a 48 point
lead over Rosberg. The fat lady is not yet singing, but she’s
waiting in the wings.
The next race is
Russia, in a fortnight. Last year, I think I remember it being
compared to Australia, so that may be a useful reference point.
Morris Dancer
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