Japan: pre-race
Bit frustrating in
qualifying. Sainz was 8th at the end of the first run in
Q2, but ended up 12th, after suffering a bad set of tyres
(not just an excuse, the vibration was so extreme it was visible
externally). Would he have made Q3, given he didn’t improve and all
those around him did? Hard to say. He would have had a shot, and the
tyres prevented that. The upside is that my ‘brave’ bet, whilst
wrong, did appear to have some basis in reality.
Q1 ended early with a
yellow flag for Verstappen when his car ran out of electricity. Both
Manors left at this stage, as did both Saubers and Button. Verstappen
did make it to Q2 but was not able to run and therefore qualified
15th (pending potential penalties).
In Q2, Sainz was
initially sitting pretty in 8th, with the Force Indias and
Lotuses off the pace (Alonso also being slow, as one would expect).
However, all save Sainz improved at the end, which meant he was only
12th, immediately behind Hulkenberg, who takes a 3 place
grid penalty for the Massa collision in Singapore (the German, upon
seeing a replay, has conceded it was his fault). Maldonado is right
behind Sainz.
Q3 saw the return to
normality, with the Mercedes a mile and a half ahead of the other
cars. Rosberg got pole by less than a tenth (oddly, Hamilton’s
never gotten pole in Japan). A little surprisingly, Bottas was best
of the rest, ahead of Vettel. Massa and Raikkonen share the third
row, with Ricciardo and Grosjean next. Kvyat made a mistake and had a
massive crash which rolled his car over and destroyed half of it, but
he was ok. However, that did mean he was last. Perez didn’t set a
lap time (due to the ensuing red flag), but qualified 9th.
The race may be wet or
dry, and tyres are medium and hard, same as Spain (where Rosberg got
pole and victory). Two stops is expected to be the norm, though
Ricciardo’s hoping he might be able to get away with one (it’s
thermal issues rather than wear which is the problem).
There’s a pit lane
start for Kvyat, as he needs a new gearbox, engine and chassis.
Race start is 2-4pm
local time. BBC was muttering about rain but the forecast I’ve seen
suggests it’ll be dry.
Initial betting
thoughts:
Safety Car
Maldonado not to be
classified
Verstappen points
[decided against after he got 3 grid penalty for parking his car
on-track]
Perez points (good on
tyre wear and solid top speed)
Force India double
score
Bottas podium
Ricciardo top 6
I think there’s a
decent chance of a safety car, but 1.4 is far too short. Race should
be dry, although the lack of run-off increases the chances of a
safety car.
Maldonado is evens not
to be classified. That might be value, given his record, but he was
classified last time.
Although I’ve ruled
it out following his penalty, Verstappen was barely evens for points.
Given he’ll start 18th or so, that’s not tempting
(especially as the Renault-powered cars will find it easy to get
stuck behind the others, which are better on the straights).
Perez was just 1.66 for
points. He has a decent chance, but that doesn’t appeal to me.
A double points finish
for Force India is 3.5. I believe Hulkenberg starts 13th
(3 place grid penalty, but Kvyat ahead of him has a pit lane start).
Perez starts 9th. That may be worth considering.
Bottas is 2.37 for a
podium. Sometimes Mercedes have dodgy starts, which would help the
Williams. The car is probably best of the rest, but there is only one
podium spot up for grabs and Vettel will be after it.
Ricciardo is 1.6 for a
top 6 finish. Too short to appeal.
So, of those Force
India to double score at 3.5 and Bottas for a podium at 2.37 seem
most interesting, though neither grabs me hugely (worth noting the
4.5 I decided against tipping on Rosberg to win each way [top 2] is
now just 2.2. So, mistake on my part not to back that).
I therefore quickly
perused Betfair and Ladbrokes to see if anything leapt out at me.
Bottas to be winner
without the big three was evens on Betfair. That’s quite tempting.
And it’s out to 2.78. That’s the one, I think.
Tip:
Bottas to be winner
without the Big 3 at 2.78 (Betfair)
I think the race starts
at 6am, rather than the expected 5am. Should be fairly dull at the
sharp end, but could be a good fight behind the Mercedes.
Morris Dancer
I knew that I wouldn't have time over the weekend to look at things so worked out my bets on Thursday based on track, form and history. Rosberg for the win e/w, Sainz for points and my speculative long shot of Massa for a podium.
ReplyDeleteTo be honest I've had no time to revisit my ideas apart from to take Ricciardo for points even at those unattractive odds.
7am is a reasonable start time for me on a Sunday so I will have chance to regret my hurried choices in real time :(