Saudi Arabia: pre-race 2024
This may shock you, but Verstappen got pole.
Q1 was a repetition of last week, with the same quintet departing. Sauber had some misfortune with Bottas encountering traffic and Zhou Guanyu just barely lacking the time to complete a flying lap after his team repaired his car. Sargeant and the two Alpines also exited at this stage.
Haas had done fairly well in Q2 and took the unusual step of employing a slipstream team tactic, which might’ve worked, but was thwarted by Hulkenberg’s engine refused to work, which brought out a red flag (after a much delayed yellow) and put him 15th. New Ferrari chap Bearman did well to put his car in 11th, given his experience to date was an hour of third practice a few hours earlier. Between him and Hulkenberg are Albon, Magnussen, and Ricciardo, who was comprehensively outqualified by Tsunoda.
And so to Q3. New track, same script. Verstappen got pole and never seemed seriously threatened, but it was a bit tighter behind him. Leclerc’s first run was disappointing but his second was impressive and got him back onto the front row. Perez and Alonso had both been quick and ended up sharing the second row. We’ll see if the Aston Martin does better than last time out, when Bahrain saw a strong qualifying turn into going backwards all through the race. Tyre wear may be lower, though.
The third row is McLaren territory, but this time Piastri pipped Norris by half a tenth. Behind them we have Russell and Hamilton. Tsunoda and Stroll completed the top 10.
Initial betting thoughts:
Perez, win each way
Alonso podium
Bearman points
Tsunoda points
The Perez win each way bet is based on the probability of him finishing 2nd to Verstappen thanks to having a great car and strong record at this circuit. I did bet, and tip, him to win at 12 pre-qualifying. His odds (unboosted) are now 9, and that’s probably still value. He starts third on the grid but was fifth (I think) last time out and still claimed 2nd in the end.
Alonso confounded me in the last race by inexorably drifting backwards. He’s performed well all weekend so far and starts fourth, making it a second strong qualifying session in a row. At 3.5 for the podium I’d be tempted but what happened last time is putting me off. That and the potential problems of an overheating Mercedes engine.
Bearman did very well to qualify 11th having had an hour to practice before driving for real. He’s just evens for points, but I am a bit wary as he’s right in the middle and any problems could easily catch him out. Plus, tyre wear may be tricky to manage. Too short to appeal.
Tsunoda is 2.25 for points, and starts ninth. A little overlooked, he crushed Ricciardo in qualifying and was half a second faster in Q2. He also failed to improve in Q3 which may mean there’s a little more raw pace in the car (unsure if he made an error in the final session). I think this is a bit 50/50 in terms of value.
As is my habit, I then browsed the markets in the Search For Value:
Magnussen, win group 3, 2.7
Piastri, win group 1, 5
Group 3 consists of Magnussen, Hulkenberg, Ocon, and Gasly. The Alpine drivers are good, but their car is not. If the Haas drivers finish they should finish ahead. Typically, Hulkenberg’s been better in qualifying (but this time starts behind Magnussen due to his reliability failure) and Magnussen in the race, most of the time. Starting ahead, and with two of the other three cars extremely slow, Magnussen has a good shot of winning group 3.
Group 1 is a five man affair, with Piastri second longest odds. The others are Russell, Norris, Hamilton, and Alonso. Piastri starts fifth on the grid, one place behind Alonso, right ahead of Norris, Russell, and Hamilton. If Alonso drifts back once again, Piastri, who has shown himself assured right at the front, is first in line to benefit.He’s 5 to do so, and while I agree Norris should be shorter odds, I disagree with the bookies putting Russell as favourite. But we’ll see. The five man size of the group is a little off-putting, however.
I like both the Perez each way and Magnussen group bets. I’m tipping both, boosted to 9.5 and 2.75 respectively. (NB, my advice to anyone who followed my earlier tip on Perez is to just stick with that and not double up, but up to you).
Race start is 5pm.
Morris Dancer
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