Australia: pre-race 2024
Albon’s crash in practice was bad news. For his team mate. While the Thai driver is clearly the quicker it’s still very rough on the American that he had to give up his car to Albon because there was no spare chassis. So, no Sargeant in qualifying or the race because Albon crashed out.
Only four drivers were eliminated in the first session, these being Hulkenberg, Gasly, Ricciardo (who was fast enough but had a quick time deleted), and Zhou Guanyu. This meant that Ocon was able to escape Q1, which is no small feat given the Alpine is the worst car on the grid.
Things were very tight and this continued in Q2. Late on, Tsunoda and Stroll put in good times to make Hamilton the fastest eliminated driver, on a circuit where he’s achieved eight pole positions in the past. Albon’s 12th at least somewhat vindicates the Williams decision to put him in their only car, with Bottas, Magnussen, and Ocon completing the eliminated driver list.
At this stage it was looking very close between the Red Bulls and Ferraris, with McLaren potentiall in the mix as well. Come Q3, it was a return to the Max Verstappen show as he once more put his car in pole position. However, Sainz bounced back brilliantly from his appendix operation to secure the grid slot right next to the Dutchman.
Row two is Perez and Norris. Note that Perez/Hulkenberg had a potential impeding issue in qualifying and this may lead to a penalty. Update: the Mexican got himself a three place penalty, so he starts behind Norris and Leclerc.Piastri starts 6th, and it’s a testament to his pace that he might feel slightly disappointed as he was generally on the same level as Norris.
Russell could only manage to lead row four, with Tsunoda alongside him (good qualifying from the Japanese driver, who starts 10 places ahead of his team mate). Stroll leads Alonso on row five.
Early Betting Thoughts:
Leclerc, podium
Sainz, win each way
Both these Ferrari early bets were things I was thinking of before Perez’s penalty came through (which affects Leclerc as it promotes him to 4th on the grid).
Leclerc is evens for a podium, behind Verstappen, Sainz, and Perez in the betting. It’s entirely credible but not great odds, especially as the McLarens may be in play.
Sainz starts alongside Verstappen on the front row and is looking very competitive. However, he’s also recovering from an appendix operation which might compromise him during constant race running. He’s 9 to win, third the odds top 2, which is a bit slender assuming Verstappen enjoys yet another victory.
Perusing the Markets:
Perez, winner each way 17
If I hadn’t already backed this I’d suggest Perez as winner each way, third odds top 2. Even in the winner without Verstappen market he’s 2.6 and favourite, so his odds here are just too long.
I may be underestimating Ferrari’s pace, and, if so, that will certainly make the race more entertaining. But no extra tip, I’m just keeping the Perez win bet.
The question is whether I get up at 4am to watch the race live.
Morris Dancer
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