Bahrain: pre-race 2024

Qualifying was pretty interesting, and things are certainly looking nice and tight. That said, a familiar face starts at the front.

In testing, it seemed Haas was the slowest, but both their cars escaped Q1. The same could not be said of Alpine, who were the slowest of the lot, or Sauber (who at least had the fastest eliminate drivers). Between the two teams was Sargeant.

Things looked tight, and while Verstappen was in the running he certainly had a challenge. In Q2 we said goodbye to both Tsunoda and Ricciardo of RidiculousTeamName, as well as Magnussen (slowest), Albon, and Stroll.

Heading into Q3 it seemed that Verstappen, the Ferraris, and maybe Alonso/Norris might be in the picture for pole. In the end, Verstappen got it by a couple of tenths ahead of Leclerc and it’s hard to see the Dutchman not converting that into yet another win. Sainz was just a tenth off his team mate, so not bad for the Prancing Horse drivers, with Russell in between them after a very good qualifying lap.

Perez’s 5th was rather less good but his car should have good race pace. Alonso starts alongside the Mexican, and will be looking to make up places on lap one as he often does. Norris and Piastri could only manage the fourth row in the end, and while the Briton had mostly been a long way ahead of his Aussie team mate at the end of the day he was less than a tenth faster.

Hamilton and Hulkenberg round out the top 10, with the Briton over two-tenths behind his team mate. Hulkenberg, however, must be pleased given how bad the Haas seemed in testing.

 

Initial Betting Thoughts

Sainz, podium

Perez, win each way

Alonso, podium

Sainz starts 4th on the grid and is 2.75 for a podium. It’s going to be very close among the upper midfield. He was three-hundredths ahead of Perez and two-hundredths behind Russell (a tenth off Leclerc). Alonso is also in the mix. This could work out but tricky to tell how the top six or so will end up beyond the likelihood of Verstappen winning.Worth considering.

Perez was nearly four-tenths off his team mate but just over a tenth off Leclerc in qualifying. In recent seasons the Red Bull has been poorer in qualifying than on race day, and Perez started last season pretty well (he seems the thrive in Arabian locations). He’s 26 for the win. Each way, third the odd stop 2, this is very much a bet worth thinking about. Even if I don’t end up tipping it, this is a perfect way to place a free bet.

Alonso, as mentioned, is also in the mix for a podium, starting right behind Perez (he was five-thousandths slower in qualifying). Alonso has never had qualifying as a strong point but is excellent on the first lap of a race and generally in wheel-to-wheel action. And DRS starts a lap earlier this season. The wily old Spaniard is 5.3 (Betfair) for a podium. While he starts 6th, he was less than a tenth behind Russell, and just over a tenth behind Leclerc.

 

In accordance with the wisdom of Admiral Yi Sun-sin I then perused the markets and saw the following:

Russell, win each way, 17

Russell had a great qualifying session and starts right behind Leclerc. To finish second at effectively 5/1 (the each way part of the bet) is surprisingly long odds. The only concern I’d have is that it’s ultra close, or seems to be, among the top chaps, and any of the top six (and maybe Norris and Hamilton too) could credibly end up that high at the flag.

 

At this stage of the season, gut instinct is really the only way to go. I’ve decided to back Alonso for a podium at 5.3.


Morris Dancer

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