Las Vegas: pre-race 2023

The Sainz bet came off in the minor way, under half a tenth coming off properly. However, his penalty turned what should’ve been a Ferrari front row into Leclerc and Verstappen, while Sainz slides back 10 places.

Q1 was notable for both McLarens being knocked out, which is a bit of a shocker. Ocon, Zhou Guanyu, and Tsunoda also failed to make the grade, which is more in line with expectations.

Q2 was bad for Perez again, but this time it wasn’t his fault. He was perhaps fast enough to trouble the Ferraris and his team mate but Red Bull kept him in the garage and he had to watch as the world and his cat improved their times and he ended up 12th, possibly with a penalty for impeding Norris in Q1 putting him further back. Another big departure, and one without such an excuse, was Hamilton, who was well off his team mate’s pace and could only manage 11th. Hulkenberg, Stroll, and Ricciardo also left here.

Going into Q3 it looked like Leclerc likeliest to get pole but with Sainz and Verstappen very close. And so it proved, with the Monegasque quickest, 0.04s ahead of Sainz. Verstappen was a few tenths further back. Russell and Gasly will end up being row two, while Albon and Sargeant both had a great qualifying to claim the third row. Bottas and Magnussen will be behind them, with the fifth consisting of ex-team mates Alonso and Hamilton.

 

In addition to Sainz’s 10 place drop, Stroll has a 5 place penalty for overtaking in third practice under yellow flags, and Perez may well get penalised for impeding though that is, at the time of writing, unconfirmed.

Early betting thoughts:

Sainz, podium

Perez, podium

Two chaps, out of position, on a circuit that’s wide and with massive straights which should encourage overtaking. Sainz will be 12th, Perez’s position is uncertain (provisionally 11th but may suffer demotion). Sainz is 3.5 for a podium and Perez is 2.5. I’ve got to say I think Sainz better value, although the Red Bull is tastier in race trim compared to its qualifying performance.

 

The markets hadn’t got fully going but lack of time meant I checked them as late as I could, and saw nothing of interest.

The Sainz bet, therefore, is what I’ve backed, boosted to 3.6.

 

The race start is 6pm UK time, so we’ll see if I manage to be up for that.

 

Morris Dancer

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