Brazil: pre-race 2023

The sprint format is stupid, and the sprint is pointless, but it does remain useful from a betting perspective. Norris did land his McLaren on pole but a shoddy first lap had him slip to third behind Verstappen (who had an effortless win) and Russell. The McLaren Briton ended up recovering to second place while the Mercedes Briton slipped behind Perez.

In the end, Verstappen was the fastest but he and Norris were a distance ahead of everyone else, including Perez. Hamilton also found himself going backwards (to 7^th) while the Ferraris and AlphaTauris had slid though not spectacular performance. Both Aston Martins also rose a few places from poor starting positions and looked fairly competitive, which makes their second row lockout for the race an interesting consideration

Incidentally, Russell and both Alpines have been hit with two place grid penalties for pit lane nonsense during qualifying.

Early betting thoughts:

Norris, win each way

Perez, podium

Alonso, podium

Ricciardo, points

Norris was only slower than Verstappen, and that wasn’t by very much. He was a long way ahead of the rest and continually extended the advantage he had over Perez.  He’s down to just 9 to win each way (from 17 yesterday, ironically swapping odds with Hamilton, with whom he shares the third row). This may still be value, despite starting in 6^th.

Perez is 2.25 for a podium. Again, potentially value but given his recent performances and the possibility of Aston Martin proving troublesome the odds are probably too short for me to back this.

Alonso starts 4^th, right behind Stroll and Leclerc. However, he’s better wheel-to-wheel than his team mate and Leclerc does sometimes have a tendency to drift backwards. The Spaniard is 10 to finish on the podium.This is difficult to assess because he started so far back in the sprint and while various passes were made he spent most of the time in a DRS train. It is worth considering.

Ricciardo starts 12^th, but both AlphaTauris showed decent pace. He slipped back a spot, out of the points to 9^th, while Tsunoda held onto 6^th. Both AlphaTauri chaps are 2.2 for points, which is too tight to tempt.

 

So, quite a lot to consider. In accordance with the principles of Marcus Aurelius, I then perused the markets:

Tsunoda, win group 4 (Smarkets)

 

I found literally nothing extra on Ladbrokes that caught my eye, or Betfair, so I ventured out to see what Smarkets had to offer. Interestingly, group bets were up, but different groups to Ladbrokes. The fourth group is Tsunoda, Ricciardo, Albon, and Magnussen. Magnussens starts 12^th, Albon 13^th, Tsunoda 16^th, and Ricciardo 17^th. In the sprint, Tsunoda performed very nicely, and the circuit is one where passing is eminently possible. Both the AlphaTauri drivers are 2.76 to top this group. My main concern is trying to pick between the pair, and splitting a stake would reduce the profits to a rather thin margin.

 

The most appealing bet remains Norris to win each way at 9 (boosted to 9.5) from 6^th. He and Verstappen were in a class of two yesterday. This probably won’t come into play, but I’ve also hedged at 3 on Betfair. Still, if Norris winds up in the lead and suffers woe or just loses out that may affect things.

Race start is 5pm UK time.

 

Morris Dancer