Abu Dhabi: pre-race 2023

Got to admit, I’m surprised Sainz didn’t do better.

In Q1, we lost Sainz. Just wasn’t fast enough. Magnussen and the Alfa Romeos both went out as did Sargeant. It was a shame for Sargeant as he did have the pace but kept exceeding track limits.

Q2 also saw a big name fail to proceed, with Hamilton dropping out while his team mate advanced. Ocon, Stroll, Albon, and Ricciardo also exited here.

And so to Q3 which seemed like it’d be Verstappen’s all day long with the McLarens (particularly Norris) as best of the rest. While the Dutchman did continue to add to his tally of poles things were a bit more interesting behind him. Leclerc’s Ferrari remembered what speed was and the Monegasque put it on the front row.

Piastri and Russell had a strong qualifying to form the second row, while row three is Norris and Tsunoda (tasty from the Japanese driver). Alonso and Hulkenberg pair up for the fourth row, with Perez having his best time eliminated for track limit violation and therefore starting 9th, alongside Gasly.

 

Early betting thoughts:

Piastri/Norris podium,

Perez, win each way

McLaren looked good in qualifying, although it was Leclerc’s Ferrari that joined Verstappen on the front row. However, he can sometimes have a tendency to drift back in the race. From 5th, Norris is 1.5 for a podium. He has a good shot but the odds are too short for me. Piastri is 2.5 from 3rd, which is more appealing without being fantastic.

Perez had the pace to be a long way further up but a violation of track limits means he starts 9th. However, he’s been on good form lately and the Red Bull loves overtaking on long straights. He’s 34 to win each way. Which I think is worth backing. He came within a hair’s breadth of achieving that in Vegas, and that was from 12th on the grid.

 

In accordance with the principles of Alexius Comnenos, I then checked the markets to see if anything else caught my eye:

Perez, podium, 5

Highly similar to the other bet, with an extra place available, Perez ending up on the podium would not be a surprise. (He’s also 5 to win group 1 which includes Leclerc, Russell, and Piastri, but this is really close to being a winner each way sort of result so appeals less than the podium bet).

 

With boost, the Perez winner each way bet is out at 36, so probably the longest odds tip of the year. I’ve laid him to win with Betfair just on the off-chance Verstappen has a reliability problem or something weird happens, so if that gets matched I’ll be green whatever happens.

Race start is 1pm, UK time. 

 

Morris Dancer

 

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