Qatar: pre-race 2023


So, the sprint bullshit is dispensed with, thankfully. It did provide some useful hints, such as DRS being overpowered (assuming the zone isn’t truncated for the race), the McLarens being pretty tasty (on par with Verstappen for Piastri) and the soft tyres not lasting long at all.

Even with a trio of safety car periods, one due to a racing incident and two down to driver errors, the softs didn’t last the sprint and the medium was clearly the better tyre.

Early betting thoughts:

Piastri, podium

Russell, podium

Sainz, top 6

Piastri starts 6th, with both Mercedes, Alonso, and Leclerc ahead of him. Oh, and some chap called Verstappen. On pace, he should’ve been 4th, but got a time deleted. The sprint showed the McLaren was a tasty beast indeed, and while he lost the lead to Russell early on, he also retook it and then maintained a gap to Verstappen, indicating both that Piastri is comfortable at the circuit and his car is rather swift. He’s 2.6 for a podium, which is slightly shorter than I’d anticipated but may still be worth backing.

Russell starts 2nd and would’ve been 3rd on pace. He performed well in the sprint and slipping down to 4th was due to tyre choice, although it’s hard to tell for certain how the Mercedes would have done on the medium tyre. Russell and Hamilton are both 1.8 for a podium. Perhaps too short to tempt.

Sainz starts 12th (unsure if that’s on pace or, like Perez in 13th, due to a time deletion). He’s 2.25 for a top 6 finish, which is eminently possible but too short given where he starts and the potential for mishaps (or just not being fast enough) along the way.

 

I then browsed the markets to see what tickled my fancy:

Piastri, winner each way, 21

Safety Car, 1.4

 

I think the markets are underestimating Piastri. The sprint showed passing was possible, arguably too easy in the DRS zone, and he was matching pace with Verstappen on equal tyres. Ironically, his biggest threat may be from Norris, starting 10th. Norris is 17 for the win, each way. However, it’s worth noting we never saw the Mercedes on the soft tyre so they may be more competitive. The Mercedes drivers can be backed at 13 for either one.

 

There were three safety cars in the half-distance(ish) sprint, so even at 1.4, the safety car appearing may be worth a bet, although the odds are less than stunnung.


I’ve backed each of the McLarens to win each way, splitting one stake evenly. With boost, the odds are 23 on Piastri and 19 on Norris.

 

Race start is 6pm UK time.

 

Morris Dancer

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