Football 26 October 2023

The football tips have been far more sporadic than I’d like this year, due largely to a series of minor annoying factors that cut back on my free time (if I hadn’t bet on F1 for so long I probably would’ve skipped the last race).

Anyway, new exciting opportunities to lose money await.


EPL

I’ve backed Wolves at 2.8 (Ladbrokes) to win at home versus Newcastle. While the away side are rightly favourites, in the last three matches both teams have a pair of wins and a draw, and home advantage is a big thing in the EPL. Wolves do have a patchy home record with a win, draw, and two losses, but they’ve also scored in every home match. And their home win was versus Manchester City.


La Liga

I’ve backed Barcelona to win at home versus Real Madrid at 2.58. The two teams are highly similar in terms of points and Barcelona currently has a perfect home record. Because of that and home advantage, I feel the odds are a parsnip too long.


Serie A

Chosen to back Lecce against Torino at home, at 2.8 (Ladbrokes). Little shorter than I’d like for Serie A but I do think the odds are skew-whiff. Lecce are on 13 points to Torino’s 9 and the home/away records also suggest Lecce should be favourites. While the home side’s recent form is a bit iffy, Torino’s is notably worse.


Ligue 1

I’ve backed Nantes to win away at Lens at 5.8. The away side have won half their away matches this season, while Lens have won a single home game, drawing two others and losing the fourth. Nantes are ahead in the table, and while they perhaps shouldn’t be odds on their current chances in reality seem shorter than the opinion of the bookies.

Although less clear-cut, I’ve also backed Strasbourg to win away at Rennes at 5.9. The two sides are separated by a single point, and while Strasbourg’s away form is so so at best, with one win from four matches, those three losses were against the top three teams in the league. Rennes have played five home games thus far, losing once (against PSG), drawing twice, and winning twice. In short, they look of similar capability making the away odds longer than they should be, I think.


Morris Dancer


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