Mexico: pre-race 2023
Well, that session felt like counterbalancing some early season flukes backing Perez for poles. Interesting grid setup, though.
The first session had a major scalp in the form of Norris. He and Piastri had attempted (and both fluffed) to initially get through on medium tyres, then he buggered up his first run on the soft, and his final attempt failed due to Alonso bringing out a yellow flag. He was joined by Ocon, Magnussen, Stroll, and Sargeant, and while the McLaren has decent pace this is not a great place from which to start. While Tsunoda escaped Q1, he starts last on the grid due to numerous parts changes.
In Q2, Gasly, Hulkenberg, Alonso, and Albon were eliminated. Albon did have the pace to escape but was deemed to have just barely transgressed against track limits. Tsunoda failed to set a time.
And so to Q3 and the inevitable Max Verstappen pole. Only he forgot to read the script and ended up 3rd. Even more bizarrely, Ferrari went so fast they confused themselves and locked down the front row, with Leclerc on pole and Sainz 2nd. Verstappen also has unusual company in the form of ex-team mate Ricciardo, who looked fast all through qualifying.
Behind Ricciardo is Verstappen’s current team mate, Perez, and Hamilton. Piastri and Russell share the fourth row, while Bottas and Zhou Guanyu make the fifth row Alfa Romeo territory.
Early Betting Thoughts:
Ricciardo, top 6
Leclerc, win each way
Tsunoda, points
Ricciardo is 2.2 to finish in the top 6 which is a bit shorter than I expected given how poor the car has generally been. He has shown pace throughout the weekend and starts 4th, so this might still be worth backing but it could be significantly better.
Leclerc starts on pole yet is 13 with Ladbrokes to win (NB because the markets weren’t up this morning I left this and returned in the early afternoon, and the odds have drifted out to 15 since then). If the Ferrari can avoid chewing up its tyres, this may represent value on an each way basis, although with Sainz right next to him it’s possible he could be outdone by his Spanish team mate.
Tsunoda is 5.5 for points, but does start dead last. The AlphaTauri’s looked surprisingly good, though passing can be difficult in Mexico. Worth considering but perhaps a step too far.
Browsing the markets, as is tradition, threw up the following:
Tsunoda to win group 4, at 2.3
Piastri, podium, 3.5
Hamilton, win each way, 17
Ricciardo, win each way, 51
Group 4 includes Tsunoda, Stroll, Hulkenberg, Sargeant, and Magnussen. Tsunoda starts last, which makes it interesting that he’s the favourite, but all the others are looking rather ropey. That said, Hulkenberg starts 12th, which is quite a long way up the road.
Piastri starts 7th. The assumption seems to be that Ferrari pace will fall off a cliff and Ricciardo will be unable to sustain the qualifying speed he put it. However, somebody he isn’t Dutch has to end up on the podium, and Piastri has been very assured in his debut season. The problem is that he has Perez and Hamilton right ahead of him.
Perez is alongside (and ahead of) Hamilton row three and second favourite for the win. However, Hamilton showed great pace last time out and was only three-hundredths off the Mexican in qualifying. If Ferrari does chew up its tyres, the Briton stands a decent shot of being the fastest non-Verstappen chap out there, unless Ricciardo springs quite the surprise. At 17 for the win each way, Hamilton is tempting.
I’ve got to agree with the consensus that Ricciardo is really, really unlikely to end up best of the rest. But strange things have happened in F1. McLaren has a 1-2 a couple of years back. Ocon and Gasly have each had surprising wins. Pastor Maldonado won a race. It’s not beyond the bounds of possibility that this 51 shot might actually come off. I strongly suspect it won’t, but it shouldn’t be dismissed out of hand.
So, plenty to consider and nothing really standing out. The Hamilton and Ricciardo bets are the most appealing, at 17 and 51 respectively.
The Hamilton bet makes more sense, so I’ve backed that at 19 with boost. If you have a free bet or spare pound or two, might be worth it backing Ricciardo.
Morris Dancer
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