Monza: pre-race 2023
Qualifying was really rather exciting but penalties might yet determine the front two rows of the grid for the race tomorrow.
Q1 was notable for just how poor Alpine were, with both drivers eliminated and achieving similar times. Stroll was last, Magnussen just barely ahead of him, with Zhou Guanyu the fastest chap to depart here.
In Q2 both the AlphaTauris went out, which was a shade surprising as they’d looked quick in Q1. Hulkenberg, Bottas, and Sargeant all went out here too.
At this point, I still thought Verstappen would get pole and the Ferraris would be his closest competition. In the end, Leclerc had the fastest time only for Verstappen to snatch it and, a moment later, Sainz took the top spot for himself, to delight the Tifosi and give neutrals the pleasant sight of someone who isn’t Dutch being the quickest.
Russell exceeded expectations to put his Mercedes into 4th (Hamilton 8th), with Perez, Albon, and Piastri between the Mercedes cars. Norris was only 9th, while Alonso was 10th.
However, there is a great shadow looming over both Ferrari drivers. A maximum lap time was set which drivers must not exceed to prevent the ridiculous situation of cars slowing one another down and failing to get over the line in time. Both Sainz and Leclerc have been called to see the stewards for contravening this upper limit. If they’re deemed guilty it seems likely a grid penalty will be the punishment doled out.
It appears they did not actually exceed this time so the grid stands as is, which is very welcome news. The forecast is for dry and sunny weather throughout.
Early betting thoughts:
Albon, top 6
Russell, podium
Albon, podium
Albon’s 1.75 to be top 6, with him starting 6th and having Piastri and Hamilton right behind him, is one of those so-so sort of bets. And I prefer not backing those at such short odds.
Russell is 3.25 to finish on the podium. He starts 4th, though his ultimate pace was about three-tenths off the close trio of Verstappen and the Ferraris. However, he’s first in line to benefit from any error or strategic screwup, and those are eminently possible. The odds are probably about right so this is neither amazing nor awful.
Albon is 7 to get on the podium. He was consistently swift in qualifying and has shown good mettle in previous races. But he does have five cars ahead of him off the line so the odds are perhaps not tempting.
In accordance with the principles of Orlog, I then perused the markets for interesting things:
Sainz, winner each way, 6
Zhou Guanyu to win group 4, 4.5
Sainz starts first and has been faster than his team mate all weekend. I still think Verstappen will take yet another victory but 6 each way makes 2nd a profitable result too and there is a small chance the Ferrari will be able to retain the lead. However, errors can be heavily punished in Monza and the team are sometimes strategically creative.
Zhou Guanyu to win group 4 looks pretty nice, providing he doesn’t leave the handbrake on at the start. Group 4 is just him and the Alpines. He starts immediately ahead of both of them, and they were a tenth and a half slower in qualifying. Given there’s only three, he has track position, and their weakness is down to the car rather than driver error, 4.5 to win the group looks too long.
I’ve backed the Zhou Guanyu bet, slightly boosted to 4.6. All else being equal, he should be ahead of the Alpines which have looked plain slow this weekend and which are prone to breaking down (the Chinese driver has had DNFs, but so have both Alpines so this is at worst a level playing field and, at best, another point in his favour).
Race starts at 2pm UK time.
Morris Dancer
Comments
Post a Comment