Japan: pre-race 2023

Worth noting that pole is very important in Japan and winners are rarely off the front row (thrice in three decades). Also, overtaking’s tricky and the track is chewing up tyres.

Q1 had the unsurprising spectacle of Sargeant introducing his car to the wall. This brought out a red flag. Hulkenberg’s been very good at qualifying this season but this time out he was out in this session, as were both Alfa Romeos and the lacklustre Stroll.

Q2 had a slight shock with Lawson the fastest departing chap. This was a bit unexpected as he was so quick up to this point, but burning an extra set of softs in the first part of qualifying may have cooked his goose. He’s been at this circuit before, and it’s been showing. Both Alpines failed to progress, as did Albon and Magnussen.

In Q3 it seemed destined that Verstappen would get pole. And he did. Comfortably. I suspect the race will be a near guaranteed Verstappen win though it could be tasty behind him and if he gets stuck behind a McLaren due to a poor start that could make things interesting. For a while, at least. Piastri was his closest competition, over half a second down the road but just three-hundredths ahead of his team mate. Very impressive from the Aussie.

Leclerc joins Norris on the second row, with the third row being Perez and Sainz. Hamilton and Russell make the fourth row Mercedes territory, with Tsunoda and Alonso rounding out the top 10.

 

Early betting thoughts:

Lawson, points

Piastri, win each way

Perez, win each way

Lawson was looking good in qualifying, finished 11^th, but that was mostly due to a too cautious approach in Q1. He’s 2.75 for points which is worth considering without being outstanding. Passing is fairly hard here, from memory.

Piastri is on the front row and 15 to win, with each way a third the odds for the top 2. He has serious opposition from his team mate (3^rd) and Leclerc (4^th) but perhaps especially from the man in 5^th: Perez. While the Mexican’s form hasn’t been great of late in qualifying, and discounting the Singapore debacle, his race finishes have been 2^nd, 4^th, 2^nd, and 3^rd lately, starting from 5^th, 7^th, 2^nd, and 9^th respectively. On top of that, the race where he started and finished 2^nd he was, as might be expected, passed by his team mate. Perez is 13 to win each way. His qualifying time was a couple of tenths off the McLaren of Piastri but margins at other races where he climbed up the order have been as big or larger.

I suspect Perez is the better value here.

 

It is known that perusing the markets is a good idea. So I did, and here’s what popped up:

Lawson, win group 3, 6

Group 3 is a large one, with Tsunoda, both Alpines, and Albon joining Lawson. He beat all but Tsunoda in qualifying, and starts two places behind his team mate. I think he’s got the measure of the rest and may be able to beat Tsunoda on pace, assuming the Japanese driver can actually make it off the line and avoid misfortune during the first lap (which has not been the case lately). Large group size is a little off-putting, though.

 

It’s a little boring but I think Perez to win each way at 13, boosted to 14, is the way to go. The Red Bull is the class of the field and tyre wear will also be a factor.

Race starts at 6am UK time.

 

Morris Dancer