Hungary: pre-race 2023

Upsets and and a very tight Q3 made this an intriguing session, although not a profitable one, alas.

This qualifying also saw the test run of a new and stupid approach of forcing teams to use the hard compound in Q1, medium in Q2, and soft in Q3. Why this is necessary or an improvement remains a mystery.

 

Q1 gave us a couple of interesting nuggets, the first being that Ricciardo escaped it and Tsunoda did not. It also saw Russell buggered by traffic as Mercedes left the second run needlessly late and he ended up 18^th on a track where overtaking is really rather difficult. We also waved goodbye to both Williams and Magnussen.

Q2 kept things nice and close, with Leclerc scraping through at the expense of his team mate. Both Alpines, Stroll, and Ricciardo failed to progress.

Heading into Q3 it was looking like yet another Verstappen podium, but we got some exciting variety. Hamilton racked up yet another pole to push the Dutchman down into 2^nd, with a McLaren second row of Norris and Piastri (this is excellent news for the team, as it means they may well be quick at a good array of circuits).

Zhou Guanyu was bizarrely quick to be 5^th, leading row three ahead of Leclerc. This wasn’t a flash in the pan, the Chinese driver was really swift all through qualifying.

Bottas and Alonso comprise the fourth row, indicating the Alfa Romeo likes the medium and slow corners of Hungary, while Perez was 9^th on pace, and Hulkenberg 10^th.

Perez was within half a second of pole and ended up 9^th, which gives a good impression of how close it was.

 

I suspect it’s win or collapse for Hamilton as the Mercedes is relatively weak in a straight line, has had difficulty overtaking even when clearly faster, and Hungary’s very tough for passing anyway. If he can retain the lead then the win may be on, but if he gets in traffic/passed then he may just end up going backwards. That’ll apply to most on the grid but especially so the Mercedes (which is why Russell’s qualifying is so irksome).

There was no grid just qualifying results on the official site so it’s possible penalties may be added. Also, the weather forecast is entirely dry.

Early betting thoughts
Lay Russell points
Norris win
Piastri podium
Hamilton win
No safety car

Passing’s hard, and though the Mercedes looks competitive perhaps even for the win it’s also looked particularly weak following another car even on circuits friendlier for overtaking. However, Russell’s only evens to be out of the points and a well-timed safety car (though these are generally unlikely) could turn things around for him.

Norris starts 3^rd on the grid and is 7.5 for the win. We know that passing’s hard which makes the start even more critical, and Hamilton and Verstappen have a history of contact. Norris should be prime beneficiary, and with his team mate just behind McLaren have more tactical flexibility than either of the chaps on the front row. However, to labour a point, passing’s rough so position matters a lot. This is a maybe.

Piastri doesn’t have the lovely double digit odds of last time to climb a single place and get on the podium but he is 4 to do so. This may still be value. The main potential downside is he starts 4^th so has to make progress, and there’s a chance he may be used tactically to assist Norris. Still worth considering.

I was very surprised that the Mercedes was genuinely competitive at the sharp end and Hamilton put in two great Q3 laps to fully deserve his 104^th pole position. He’s 3.5 to win (4.4 on Betfair), which is too long for a man starting in pole, who has a great track record, and whose car has looked on pace. The main threat is a poor start, but that exists as a problem everywhere. 

Hungary is one of the lowest, perhaps the lowest, circuits on the safety car likelihood scale thanks to being usually dry and having large run-off areas. However, 2.25 for no safety car is too short to tempt.

 

So, the Hamilton win bet looks nice but there’s no harm in perusing the markets.

Hulkenberg, win group 3, 8

Piastri, win group 1, 2.5

Group 3 includes Hulkenberg (longest odds to win), Ocon, Stroll, and Gasly. Hulkenberg starts at the top of this group in 10^th, with the others 12^th, 14^th, and 15^th. His odds are long because the Haas chews up its tyres, which helps them switch the tyres on for qualifying but tends to rough them up too much in the race. But, as mentioned many times, Hungary’s hard for passing. If Hulkenberg can stay ahead at the start he has a decent shot of staying in the lead.

Piastri’s group includes Perez, Leclerc, and Alonso, 9^th, 6^th, and 8^th on the grid. Car performance suggests only Perez should be in with a credible shot of getting ahead but he’s five places further back on a circuit notorious for being unhelpful for overtakes. However, there are multiple pit stops expected and the odds are just 2.5.

 

Overall, I like the Hamilton bet the most by some distance, so I’m backing that at 4.4 on Betfair and setting up a hedge at 1.5. If he gets off the line ok he has a good chance of keeping the place.

Race starts at 2pm.

 

Morris Dancer