Belgium: pre-race 2023

Ah, the sprint race. Today it was more comically stupid than usual, with a repeatedly delayed start due to the weather. When it did get going, half the field dove into the pits for inters (the rest stayed out on the full wet, avoiding a full-blown clogging of the pit lane). This enabled Piastri to get ahead of Verstappen, the Aussie for once benefiting through the pit stops.

Unfortunately Alonso binned his car in a gravel trap, bringing out the safety car and allowing the Dutchman, on the restart, to reclaim the lead and then cruise off to win. However, Piastri was never challenged in his 2^nd place.

Gasly did his best to cheer up his team by netting 3^rd, with both Ferraris following (Sainz ahead).

Norris was 6^th, thanks to the penalty explained below. Not ideal but he’s also benefited from pit stop calls recently.

Close contact between Perez and Hamilton damaged the Mexican’s car and necessitated a box and retire, and landed the Briton a 5s time penalty. Some will say that was rather harsh on Hamilton.

Hamilton ended up 7^th, which is a bit rough, just ahead of his team mate.

 

If the race tomorrow is soggy and then drying today will prove useful for assessing pace. And, if not, it won’t.

If it’s dry this may compromise McLaren more than other teams as they seem to have leaned relatively more on the mixed setup rather than going for a dry one.

Note: For the race, Verstappen has a five place grid penalty for a new gearbox. Magnussen has a three place grid penalty for impeding another driver in qualifying.

The weather forecast at the time of writing is that it could be dry, wet, or mixed.

 

Early betting thoughts

Verstappen win
Perez win, each way
Leclerc podium
Hamilton podium

 

Verstappen to win a race is the least heroic bet since betting on it to rain in England during July. He starts 6^th and is 1.22 to win. Those odds don’t appeal (in the wet someone could slide into him) but they’re probably not wrong.

Perez’s odds to win have lengthened from 6 yesterday to 7 today (add a half to include boost). This may be value. The drier the race the better for him as the car seems more set up that way and the Mexican is better, in relative terms, in the dry. Each way, for a man starting 2^nd with the best car on a circuit where passing is eminently possible, is well worth consideration.

Leclerc finished where he started yesterday, though if it’s drier the performance may not be a useful guide. Nevertheless, the fact both he and Sainz have been doing well indicates the Ferrari seems to be pretty good this weekend. He’s 2.6 for a podium. I think that’s around correct as I think both Red Bulls will be there. Hmm.

Hamilton starts 3^rd and his Mercedes has looked tasty on low fuel recently. It’s also looked a bit of a dog with high fuel, though, and is weaker in a straight line than most others. 1.61 for a podium looks too tight to me.

 

And so in conjunction with the dictates of the universe I browsed the market for value:

Piastri, podium, 3.75

Piastri has been faster than Norris all weekend, and starts 5^th. He showed very good form in the wet/drying conditions yesterday, the only error being due to inexperience in bolting too soon on the safety car restart, and he may well have been passed by Verstappen then anyway. Certainly in mixed weather he looks capable of ascending the order. Harder to say if that will prove true in the dry. But 3.75 for a podium should not be discounted.

So, the most appealing bets to me are Perez, each way, to win at 7.5 (anticipating 2^nd), and Piastri to gain a first podium at 3.75.

The preferred bet depends on the weather, which we can only guess at. Dry for Perez, rainy for Piastri.

I’m going to back Perez. The Red Bull’s the dominant car, recently they’ve set it up more for race than qualifying, Spa is eminently helpful for overtaking, and in the dry it’ll be even better.

 

Race starts at 2pm. Probably.

 

Morris Dancer