Austria: pre-race 2023

 

While the sprint format remains stupid the race today was entertaining thanks to intermediate conditions for the first two-thirds and it drying sufficiently for slicks for the latter 8 laps or so (of 24).

Off the line, Perez had the better of it and overtook his team mate, only to go wide and lose out first to Verstappen and then to Hulkenberg. Norris, meanwhile, got caught out and slipped back to 10^th having been 4^th. In the early running, before tyre wear (which affected all cars but the Haas fastest), Hulkenberg was 2^nd for quite a while and was able to maintain and slightly extend his advantage over Perez. Then his car chewed up his tyres and he was passed easily by Perez and then Sainz. He was falling int the clutches of the Aston Martins (Stroll ahead of Alonso) when he boxed.

This was a couple of laps after Russell made the bold call, which was entirely right. Hamilton swapped for slicks one lap after his team mate but Russell’s up-to-temperature tyres enabled him to get past. Further ahead, the top five or six couldn’t afford to pit due to lack of laps to make up the pit stop time, while Hulkenberg and Russell in particular were flying on slicks.

Verstappen’s massive advantage meant he was never at risk, and Perez came home in 2^nd place. Sainz baged 3^rd. The Aston Martins had an entertaining last lap fight but Stroll kept 4^th. Hulkenberg managed to climb back to 6^th, which vindicates the strategy call. Ocon fell to 7^th and Russell nabbed the final point.

And so to a proper race. At the moment (I’ll check nearer the time) there’s a 30% chance of rain each hour, so could go either way. On the morning, the chance of showers had risen to 50% each hour, so it’s definitely something that has to be in mind without being guaranteed.

 

Early betting thoughts:

Norris, podium

Not the longest of betting lists, but Norris has looked good all weekend. Yes, he went backwards in the sprint race but that was due to losing out from an early bottleneck and sticking with intermediates (which only worked out for the top five). On pace, he’s been impressive thanks in part to the upgrades his McLaren has. He starts 4^th, behind Verstappen and the two Ferraris, ahead of Hamilton and the Aston Martins, and is 6 for a podium. With Alonso 3 and Hamilton 2.2, I think that’s probably too long.

 

In accordance with the Ancient Tablet of Sharblefunk I think checked the markets to see what else was there:

Norris, win group 2, 2.3

Norris/Perez, winner each way, 26

Leclerc/Sainz, winner each way, 11/13

Group 2 includes Stroll (6^th), Gasly (9^th), and Ocon (12^th). All else being equal, it looks like Norris should win this (he’s tied for odds with Stroll as favourite). Little short, though.

Verstappen, funnily enough, is very short to win at 1.2. Despite the each way/third the odds top 2 being available, everyone else is in double figures. Norris is the same odds as Perez (26). Assuming nothing happens to Verstappen and everyone else is squabbling for runner-up spot, 26 for the chap in 4^th is on the long side. He may also be assisted by Ferrari using cunning strategy. Perez is not out of the running for this either, thanks to immense straight line speed. The problem he has is starting 15^th, and wet weather will make things tricky for him.

The Ferraris do start 2^nd and 3^rd, and should be in prime position to cut off rivals strategically because of that. The only downside is that Ferrari can sometimes make unorthodox (to be polite) decisions on this front.

The high chance of rain at some point is probably a pro for the likes of Hulkenberg and a con for Perez. He’s not awful in the rain but the Red Bull’s strength is straight line speed and this is reduced in wet weather due to the absence of DRS.

 

Nothing absolutely stands out as amazing value, but there are a few things worth considering. Sainz didn’t get much coverage during the sprint but was solid in 3^rd, close to Perez and never threatened by the Aston Martins (whether that holds true in the dry remains to be seen).

 

I’ve decided to back Norris for a podium at 6. Let’s hope he enjoys better fortune than in the sprint.

 

Morris Dancer