Canada: pre-race 2023

 

In a pleasant surprise I was able to watch most of qualifying. And it was largely we, varying between briefly ok for slicks in Q2 and full wet territory at the end of Q3. This meant the teams used almost no dry tyres at all, and we had a very mixed up grid.

Not especially surprising to lose Tsunoda, Gasly, De Vries, Sargeant and Zhou Guanyu in the first part of qualifying.

However, two big names did fail to escape Q2. Leclerc and Perez were the fastest eliminated chaps, and both have had iffy qualifying form of late. Canada is not one of the Mexican’s better circuits. Stroll, Magnussen, and Bottas also exited. However, due to some smart strategy from Williams, Albon cruised through by an early adoption of the dry tyre.

Q3 started wet and got wetter. The elements were no trouble for Verstappen who found himself claiming a seemingly inevitable pole. He was joined on the front row by Hulkenberg, who had a very impressive lap. However, this was deemed contrary to a Piastri-induced red flag and landed the German a three place grid penalty.

Alonso had been Verstappen’s closest competition throughout wet qualifying and was 2rd, but gets promoted to the front row. Hamilton was behind but may be closer in the dry (the race is forecast to be without rain).

Russell was a couple of tenths further back, then came Ocon and Norris, Piastri and Albon (who got stuffed by the red flag as he couldn’t set a lap time in the best conditions).

What of Sainz? He got a three place grid penalty for impeding Gasly, and starts 11th between Leclerc and Perez.

 

Early betting thoughts:

Hamilton win each way/podium

Hamilton is 1.67 for a podium which is a little stingy given he’s got Alonso ahead and his team mate right behind. However, this is a track at which he’s excelled in the past. For the win, each way, he’s 9 (9.5 with boost). I think that’s worth backing. His record here has been very good and he starts high on the grid. Hard to say if the Mercedes-Aston Martin comparison will be like Spain but if it’s anywhere close then Hamilton has a great shot of finishing in the top 2. So I’ve backed this.

 

Just in case anything leapt out at me I browsed the markets, but nothing caught my sleepy eye. So, just a 9.5 each way bet on Hamilton to win.

 

Morris Dancer

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