Miami: pre-race 2023
Not for the first time this season, I got a splendid slice of luck that meant the 9.5 on Perez (each way) to top qualifying came off. I’m sure things will balance out later on, but so far this year’s been rather fortunate.
The track has been tricky due to lack of grip and qualifying was made worse with gusty winds. That said, there was no surprise to see local lad Sargeant propping up the time sheet. Sadly, not a real shock to see Norris and Piastri exit in Q1, nor Tsunoda. However, it was surprising that Aston Martin’s Stroll failed to progress. They tried to make it through without using more tyres and paid the price.
Q2 also had a shock departure in the form of Hamilton, who qualified a measly 13th. Not great but the poor form had been present in Q1. Albon was the fastest eliminated chap, followed by Hulkenberg, with Zhou Guanyu and De Vries completing the set.
And so to Q3 which looked to me like a Verstappen pole with a close Perez-Ferrari fight behind him. The gusty winds caught out the Dutchman on his first lap, which he aborted, Leclerc locked up late on to put in a poor time and Sainz wasn’t quite there. This left Perez to put in the initial fastest lap, followed by Alonso and Sainz.
The second run was starting when Leclerc spun, crashed out, and brought a yellow then red flag, which ended the session. Quite the turn of events. Perez got pole, while Verstappen will start 9th on a circuit where passing is very hard. He has been the man on form and is in the fastest car, but even so he may find it more of a challenge than usual to fight through the grid.
Behind Perez, Alonso, and Sainz we have Magnussen, Gasly, and Russell, which is quite the unexpected top six. Row four is Leclerc and Ocon, while Verstappen and Bottas are on the fifth row.
Probably just what this circuit needs, to be honest. But if the race isn’t interesting with that grid then it will cement Miami’s reputation as a rival for Horlicks.
At the time of writing the BBC reckons there’ll be about a 20% chance of rain with thundery showers.
Early betting thoughts:
Perez win
Lay Verstappen podium
Alonso podium
Perez is 1.91 to win. This may be value despite the low odds, as he’s done rather well from the front at both Saudi Arabia and Azerbaijan. Bit reluctant to back something so short, though.
Mildly surprised Verstappen’s only 1.47 to lay for a podium, which is not a bet I’m inclined to take. Passing seems very difficult but he does have the fastest car and has been the driver most in tune with the track all weekend. Plus, the chance of rain would be to his benefit, I think.
Alonso is 1.5 for a podium. Narrow track, potential rain, too short, though he has a good shot.
And so, following tradition, I perused the market to see if any value leapt out at me. Annoyingly, when I checked at half six, the markets weren’t fully up. Humbug. Waited until 10am, and some more have gone up but not the full set.
Unusually, not a single thing caught my eye. This may be a first.
I’ve therefore backed Perez for the win at 1.99. This is with Betfair.
He starts first, has the fastest car, the track is difficult to very difficulty for overtaking and he’s won half the races this year. Even if Alonso jumps him off the line, Perez should be able to use superior pace to get it back through the pit stops.
So, not an amazing bet, but it’s the one I’ve made.
Race start is 8.30pm UK time.
Morris Dancer
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