Australia: pre-race 2023

 

I’m something of an insomnia connoisseur, but even for me last night was terrible. As such, I overslept (having been awake at 5.30am and struggled to sleep up until the point I didn’t want to). The upside was that the red flag period was just ending as I tuned in.

Q1 saw one shock departure: Sergio Perez. He locked a wheel, though it’s uncertain whether this was a failure of the car or driver. Either way, he’s last. Both Alfa Romeos and Sargeant also failed to progress, as did local lad Piastri.

In Q2 we lost both AlphaTauris, with Ocon eliminated by seven-thousandths. Norris and Magnussen also failed to escape. This session was notable for Albon looking bizarrely quick and things appearing close at the sharp end.

So to Q3, with a chance of rain in the dying moments. As it happened, it never turned up, but things looked close as Verstappen struggled with car problems (downshifts and something else unspecified). But it magically cleared up and he stormed to pole, again.

However, right behind him we have the Mercedes pair, Russell once again teaching Hamilton how to be fast in qualifying. Alonso may feel disappointed with 4^th given Perez’s departure in Q1, but it’s still a handy position.

Row three is Sainz and Stroll, with Leclerc and Albon right behind them. Gasly and Hulkenberg form the fifth.

A feature of qualifying was how much time it was taking to get temperatures into the tyres. If this repeats during the race then expect woe galore on the first lap, as drivers jostle and don’t have the grip they need.

Early betting thoughts:

Russell, podium

Perez, podium/win (each way)

Alonso, podium

Albon, points

Under 16.5 classified finishers

With Perez at the back and Verstappen having some sort of woe during qualifying which may yet recur during the race, the podium might be a market worthy of consideration. Russell has performed well this year, but is only 1.91 for a podium. Given Alonso close behind the Mercedes, competition from his team mate, and a probably charging Perez, that’s too short to tempt.

Speaking of a Mexican chap, Perez could still end up on the podium. Street circuits are his bread and butter, and I expect him to make up plenty of ground. Assuming his car problem does not recur, which is a concern. For a podium, he’s 5, and 34 for the win (each way with a free bet would be something I’d definitely advocate, uncertain if I’ll back it with my own money). The Red Bull is the fastest car by a long way. And Perez is driving very nicely. When his car works.

Another chap enjoying a purple patch is Alonso, who is second favourite for a podium (again) at 1.67. The odds put me off. If Mercedes have their act together, and the circuit being softer on tyres than others reduces Aston Martin’s relative advantage from not roughing up the tyres like Ferrari/Mercedes, then that plus Perez makes is a little less likely Alonso ends up top 3. Still entirely credible, of course, but 1.67 does not tempt me.

Albon had an impressive qualifying, and starts 8^th on merit. His car was often quickest in the middle sector too. He’s evens for points... which is probably about right. Should end up there but there’s always the risk of a badly timed safety car or other woe occurring.

Tyres struggling for warm up means off the line I think it’s possible plenty of chaps will find grip fails to meet expectations and cars may encounter one another and the wall. It’s 2.25 for there to be under 16.5 classified finishers. Not great, not awful.

In accordance with the theodicy of Saint Irenaeus, I also checked the markets generally to see if anything leapt out at me.

1 or 2 cars not to be classified, Red Bull, 3.25

Pretty straightforward, there have been some car problems both here and in previous races. Insufficiently warm tyres probably for Verstappen off the line, while Perez will find himself surrounded by others increase the chance for a lap 1 incident as well.

I’m not counting this as a proper tip but if you have the funds and don’t mind a wafer thin margin, you can back under 17.5 classified finishers with Betfair (£192 available at the time of writing) at 1.74 and a non-boosted 2.4 (so little higher with boost) on Ladbrokes for over 17.5 classified finishers. Tiny margin but guaranteed profit, if you’re so inclined.

All in all, nothing quite tickles my fancy. I do think Perez will recover handily, but am a little wary of the car going wonky again. Ironically, I’m torn between backing him for a podium or Red Bull to have 1 or 2 cars not classified.

I the end, I opted to back him for a podium at a boosted price of 5.25. The Red Bull speed advantage is significant and Perez’s home territory is the street circuit. He should also have less tyre cool down off the line than those at the sharp end.

At the moment my early Perez to win each way better is looking less than marvellous, but given that this is due to a slice of bad luck and a huge dose of good fortune landed me a pair of nice winners last time I can’t complain too much.

We’ll see if I manage to wake up in time for the race.

Morris Dancer