Bahrain: post-race analysis 2019

Well, the Sainz bet didn’t come off. Bit unlucky, actually. But otherwise the race was thoroughly entertaining.

Incidentally, Hulkenberg’s oddly lacklustre qualifying performance was due to an engine malfunction that put his Renault into safe mode (slow mode, essentially).

An awful lot happened in the race. I’ll do my best to remember it, but if I forget bits and pieces, don’t be surprised.

Off the line, Leclerc struggled and Vettel strolled into the lead. Meanwhile, Bottas passed Hamilton, and then Leclerc. Within a few corners the top four had all changed places.

Further back, Hulkenberg leapt up the order (he did the same in Australia), and Sainz passed Magnussen.

Leclerc was squirming around, struggling for grip, barely holding off Hamilton. In a lap or two he recovered himself and passed Bottas. The Finn now seemed the weakest of the quartet, and was shortly passed by Hamilton too. Verstappen was right behind him and seemed poised to pounce, but the Dutchman made an error, lost a little time, and Sainz was right behind him.

The Spaniard attempted a pass but the two came together. It seemed ever so slight, but it ruined Sainz’s race (and my bet). Front wing and tyre damage meant Sainz lost about a minute and a half limping around for an early pit stop, putting him dead last. A damned shame, as pace indicated he would’ve retained the 6^th he had at the time. My judgement was sound but luck lacking (I can’t complain too much as I’ve had some good luck already this season).

Further ahead, Vettel had stretched out a small lead but Leclerc narrowed the gap. Team orders were nowhere as the young Monegasque caught and then passed his illustrious team mate, before rapidly cruising off into the distance.

Further back, Magnussen (then 6^th) made a small error which cost him a bundle of time as he was passed by half a dozen car, never really recovering.

Heading for the first pit stops, Verstappen went early (later it emerged he had a slow puncture and it was a forced stop). Ferrari were forced to box Leclerc first to protect the lead, which exposed Vettel to Hamilton’s undercut. The Briton duly ended up ahead, but on the soft tyre against the German’s medium. On the abrasive Bahrain surface, Vettel closed the gap and passed his rival.

Leclerc was in control, Vettel had a steady few seconds on Hamilton, and Bottas and Verstappen were in a sort of No Man’s Land ahead of the midfield and a few seconds separate from one another.

A handful of drivers attempted the one stop strategy, including Magnussen and Ricciardo. The Aussie’s last few laps on his first stint were agonisingly slow, and the fact his team mate (who had started 17^th) passed him on track can only have rubbed salt into the wound.

The second pit stops came in and Vettel barely made it out ahead of Hamilton. The two fought it out at close quarters with some fantastic racing until Vettel made a mistake and spun. Badly. The spin damaged his tyres and forced another stop, but on the way to it the tyre damage caused a vibration to effectively made the two sides of his front wing disintegrate (it could’ve been a lot worse, there was no other or collateral damage).

Mercedes were now on course for a double podium finish, but Leclerc was still comfortably in the lead.

Further back, Hulkenberg had passed Ricciardo (again), with a tiny collision due to a little lock up from the Aussie. But after a weak qualifying Renault were in a tasty spot, 6^th and 7^th. Norris and Raikkonen, who was driving really rather well, were not that far behind, and engaged in some entertaining racing themselves.

Leclerc reported a problem with his engine. And it was quite serious. He was dropping seconds a lap to Hamilton. It seems his MGU-H wasn’t working, costing him around 160bhp, equating to something like 5s a lap. He struggled on, but there was nothing he could do to stop Hamilton getting past him, and even though he had a 30s advantage on Bottas, this wasn’t enough and he slipped down to 3^rd.

And then we had a synchronised failure.

Practically at the same moment, both Renaults suffered failures, with Ricciardo’s car running out of electricity (I’m unsure if Hulkenberg had the same problem or an engine issue). They crashed out at the same time, and the team went from 6^th and 7^th to a double DNF (14 points to 0). Norris was promoted to 6^th, Raikkonen 7^th (nigh on certain Sainz would’ve won his group had the Verstappen contact not happened, but there we are).

Sainz eneded up retiring, as did Grosjean.

But the double retirement meant the safety car came out, and stayed out until the end, rescuing Leclerc’s consolation prize of a podium just as unexpectedly as he’d lost was seemed certain victory. Verstappen got 4^th and Vettel 5^th.

Norris was dogged in defence and retained 6^th, whilst Raikkonen had a good race and ended up 7^th. Gasly was largely anonymous (in his defence, a lot happened on track) and got 8^th, which is ok given where he started, but given Hulkenberg started four places further back and was due to finish four places higher, it could’ve been better.

Albon and Perez snaffled the last two points positions.

For Ferrari, it was a weekend of two days: Heaven on Saturday and Hell on Sunday. It could’ve been worse, but a reliability failure stole triumph and Vettel’s error (perhaps a bit unlucky a simple spin was so severe in consequence) cost them what would’ve been 2^nd.

For Renault, even worse. Dire qualifying, fantastic racing, atrocious reliability.

McLaren had mixed fortunes, with bad luck for Sainz and great driving polished off with a stroke of luck for Norris.

Alfa Romeo had a good day, with Raikkonen scoring again and Giovinazzi just one place off. Williams, meanwhile, remain in a third tier league of woe by themselves.

I believe Leclerc also got the fastest lap.

Here’s how the drivers stack up at this early stage of the season:

Bottas 44

Hamilton 43

Verstappen 27

Leclerc 26

Vettel 22

Raikkonen 10

Norris 8

Magnussen 8

Hulkenberg 6

Gasly 4

Albon 2

Stroll 2

Kvyat 1

Perez 1

I won’t always put up a full list, but thought it’d be interesting to see who’s got what (and who has nothing). Right now, it should be a tight Ferrari-Mercedes contest at the top, instead the Silver Arrows have an early lead. Raikkonen’s the consistent chap in the midfield, getting good points in both races so far. Renault and Haas should have a truckload more, with 5 DNFs already between them.

Here’s the Constructors’:

Mercedes 87

Ferrari 48

Red Bull 31

Alfa Romeo 10

McLaren 8

Haas 8

Renault 6

Racing Point 3

Toro Rosso 3

Williams 0

Alfa Romeo should not be 4^th. On pace, Renault and Haas are definitely better, and probably McLaren too. But a reliable car and a good driver in Raikkonen is working nicely for them, though it remains to be seen if that’ll be the case over a full season. At the sharp end, Ferrari should be closer, and Gasly’s lacklustre start is costing Red Bull.

Obviously disappointing the bet didn’t come off, but bad luck’s only hard to deal with when there’s no good, and I’ve already had some strokes of fortune this year. The thinking behind the bet was sound.

Also easier to accept when the race is cracking.

Next race is in China, and I’m hoping it’ll be just as good.

Morris Dancer