Australia: pre-qualifying 2019


Learnt on Thursday that Charlie Whiting, the race director, died suddenly of an embolism. Rather a shock, to be honest. In his sixties, which isn’t exactly old these days, and a great loss to the sport. Rest in peace.

The fastest lap will now earn said driver a point. He would still have to finish in the top 10, though. Seems a bit of a gimmick to me, when the F1 decision-makers have rather bigger fish to fry, but there we are. It might have altered the third place spot last time, as Raikkonen, Verstappen, and Bottas all finished very close together indeed.

Even before the season started, Williams announced that Paddy Lowe has taken a leave of absence for personal reasons. May not bode well. At this stage it sounds permanent but we really don’t know for sure.

Practice Times

First practice saw Hamilton fastest, but Vettel was just four-hundredths behind him, and Leclerc a similar margin behind his team mate. Verstappen was a further tenth down the road, with Bottas behind him. A promising young driver called Kimi Raikkonen was next up (albeit a second off Bottas’ pace), then came Kvyat, Gasly, Magnussen, and Hulkenberg.

Hamilton also topped second practice, a mighty five-hundredths ahead of his team mate. Verstappen was third, but a full eight-tenths off Hamilton’s pace, Gasly just four-hundredths behind his highly rated team mate. Vettel and Raikkonen followed close behind. It seems nobody told Raikkonen he’s moved to a considerably slower team this year. Hulkenberg and Ricciardo were next up, with Leclerc and Grosjean rounding out the top 10.

Impressed with Raikkonen’s pace, although it is only practice. Hard to judge but things look tight at the top.

Always interesting at this time of year when we’re working more with guesswork than at any other point.

Betting

I had intended to not bet on qualifying but there was one that looked a bit out-of-kilter to me.

Bottas, pre-practice, was 17 on Ladbrokes to be the fastest qualifier (fifth the odds top 3), with 19 if you have boost. I think that’s too long. Whilst he should have the longest odds of the Ferrari/Mercedes drivers, we don’t actually know which car is fastest right now. It’s likely those two engines still have a superior ‘party mode’ to the Honda, perhaps putting Red Bull out of the running, but I think with the other three around 3, Bottas at 19 is just too long. I’ve backed that, each way. Update: after FP1 and FP2, the odds on Ladbrokes fell to 9. Still probably a coin toss bet, but I think it’s reasonable at the odds I got.

After the first two practice sessions I checked the markets again. I don’t usually go for short odds bets, but if you do I saw a couple worthy of consideration.
Mercedes, double top 6 finish, 1.53.
Gasly, top 6 finish, 1.66.

Essentially, the sport’s been two-tier for a few seasons now. Barring reliability problem or driver error, Mercedes should get a double top 6 finish at a canter. Likewise, Gasly should have the Red Bull performance gap to the midfield and finish top 6, unless he suffers mechanical malady or introduces his car to the barriers. (The reason I don’t like short odds bets is that reliability problems do arise, and so does driver error, and not necessarily the error of the driver you’ve backed).

Besides the race weekend markets there are some specials and title markets to consider.
There’s 4.5 on Hamilton to get the title and Ferrari to get the Constructors’. That’s somewhat tempting, but the odds are a bit short, and the time frame a bit long.

Joy of joys, the race starts at a little after 5am. We’ll see if I wake up in time. Qualifying is on at the slightly more civilised hour of 6am.

Morris Dancer

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