Australia: post-race analysis 2019

A rather interesting result. I brilliantly continued my bad habit of sleeping in for either race or qualifying, and missed the first 26 laps or so, but caught the highlights later. Ferrari look to be third fastest with Mercedes in good shape and Verstappen competitive, but the jury is out on Gasly.

Watched highlights:

Off the line Bottas had a great start. Hamilton’s wasn’t awful but also wasn’t sufficient to stop his team mate getting ahead. Further back, Hulkenberg started well, making up three places, but Ricciardo had a slightly odd incident, running onto the grass and managing to lose his front wing. Kubica also lost his front wing, and the pair were forced into early pit stops.

Leclerc attempted to get around Vettel and almost collided, the evading action putting him onto the grass and ensuring both Vettel and Verstappen were ahead of him.

Meanwhile, the more things change for McLaren the more they stay the same. Different engine, different unlucky Spaniard, same result. The Renault engine failed and Sainz had to retire from the race.

Vettel pitted early, for the frontrunners, and Hamilton followed suit to cover him, later questioning the strategy call. Bottas ended up in the lead (having ‘lost’ it to Verstappen due to pitting earlier). Did the stop make a difference? I don’t think so.

Seen live:

Around lap 25 or so Bottas looked to have the race sewn up. Verstappen was leading until he pitted, emerging behind Bottas, Hamilton and Vettel. On the medium tyre, the Dutchman soon approached and passed the German, who was powerless to resist (indeed, it later looked as if there was some sort of weird gremlin interfering with Vettel’s pace, which was consistently and significantly slower than Leclerc).

Meanwhile, Renault had to retire Ricciardo, whose seemingly innocuous trip to enjoy the greenery beside the track ended up prompting the premature end of his race due to damage. Haas partied like it was 2018, with Grosjean retiring due to his left front wheel not being properly attached.

Further back, Kvyat was driving quickly and well, close to passing Stroll before the returned Russian went for an off-track excursion. Red Bull pounced and pitted Gasly, who emerged just ahead of Kvyat. Only for the sister team driver to immediately pass the Frenchman, who then proved unable to retake the place. Not a great debut for Gasly, but a good return for Kvyat.

Leclerc was lapping the best part of a second faster than his team mate, who was ahead of him on track, and closed right up on Vettel. Team orders came in and the Monegasque duly sat back, but it was plain he was much faster. It’s presumed mechanical woe of some sort was afflicting Vettel (and that tallies with his more competitive pace earlier in the race), but it did make the team orders starkly obvious. 4^th and 5^th for Ferrari, with probably the third best car on race day. Yikes.

Verstappen closed on Hamilton but couldn’t pass. He settled back for 10 laps of fun, as the radio message had it, only to trundle over the grass. Although the Dutchman got close to the Briton, Hamilton was never really threatened. Not by Verstappen, anyway.

A dominant, magnificent performance from Bottas, who got the fastest lap point as well, for a tally of 26 after just one race.

Hamilton got 2^nd but was a pit stop behind the Finn. May be worth checking Bottas’ title odds, though I suspect they’ll be too short to tempt.

Verstappen had to make do with 3^rd, whilst Gasly ended up out of the points altogether. In the Frenchman’s defence, his qualifying mishap was more down to the team and perhaps some poor luck (due to high track evolution), and it’s hard to overtake in Australia. Against him, he had probably the second fastest car on the circuit and couldn’t pass a Toro Rosso.

Behind the top teams, Magnussen got best-of-the-rest for Haas. After a strong performance in qualifying, backing that up in the race must be gratifying for the team (albeit mixed with the bitterness of Grosjean’s pit stop-related retirement).

Hulkenberg was 7^th, not far behind Magnussen on the track but never really challenging either, other than an ill-fated attempt when the Dane’s pit stop brought them very close together. However, having failed to reach Q3, he and Renault may not be too displeased. Raikkonen was next up, another good performance, but the gap over his team mate Giovinazzi is somewhat exaggerated by Alfa Romeo keeping the Italian out too long, costing him quite a lot of time, and then having a slow pit stop, costing him 5s more.

Stroll got a couple of points for Racing Point. I forget the precise odds, but at least 4 was available pre-race on him beating Perez, and it was maybe as long as 6.5. Must say, I wouldn’t’ve predicted it (and, indeed, didn’t). Kvyat got the final point, making it, oddly, back-to-back points finishes for the Russian (albeit with a year and a half or so interval). Not only that, his success meant Gasly’s failure, as the Frenchman failed to get a point for Red Bull. How would he have done had the team not been complacent in qualifying? We’ll never know.

Norris ended up 12^th (Sainz retiring). Not great for McLaren, particularly after the newcomer started in the top 10. Further down the field, Williams were embarrassingly slow. Almost the entire midfield is competitive, but the Williams just isn’t up to scratch.

Here’s how the drivers currently stand:

Bottas 26 [win +1 for fastest lap]

Hamilton 18

Verstappen 15

Vettel 12

Leclerc 10

Magnussen 8

Hulkenberg 6

Raikkonen 4

Stroll 2

Kvyat 1

It’s quite interesting to consider how things will go if Bottas is on form throughout this year. It’s fundamentally different for Mercedes not only because of the intra-team competition and tension, but also because he has the same equipment as Hamilton, which is to say the best car in qualifying and best or equal best in the race. Ferrari need to gain pace quickly or will find themselves left behind, a problem exacerbated by Verstappen’s speed, which could repeatedly put them a place further down the order.

After the race, Mercedes found some damage to Hamilton’s car. Unclear how much pace it cost, though.

In the midfield, it’s very tight, and the lower half of the points has narrower margins, making both the competition and the likely points tallies very close indeed. Circuit differences could prove, on a race-by-race basis, critical for midfield teams when it comes to relative pace. Likely to be between Haas, Renault, and Alfa Romeo based on the first race, but we’ll have to see how things stand after we get more results in. (I haven’t included the Constructors’ points because, at this stage, things are pretty clear from just the Drivers’).

Bottas is currently 5 for the title, each way third the odds top 2 available. Over a whole season, too short to tempt. Verstappen at 9 is interesting. Australia’s got quite a bit of power involved, and at slower circuits he could well have the fastest car. Not making any further title bets at this stage.

On the betting front, a nice weekend. Would’ve been better had Bottas managed to claim pole, but I can’t complain about both tips coming off (one mentioned on PB, the other on this blog). The next race is in a fortnight, in Bahrain (I think).

Morris Dancer